Add Sevilla -138 Over Malaga to La Liga Picks this Weekend

Nikki Adams

Friday, January 16, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 16, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Can Malaga be victorious at Sevilla? Find out what the odds makers are saying as we weigh in on this top half of the table clash in Primera Division slated for the coming weekend.

Sevilla Firm Favourites
Los Rojiblancos are sat fourth in Primera Division going into the weekend with a game in hand. They'll look to continue their solid run of form and keep pace with the league's top triplet of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, this weekend when they face Malaga. Valencia, sat in fifth place and just a point behind Sevilla, could potentially leapfrog into fourth with a win over Athletic Club on Saturday. All in all, these diverging plots sets up a rather interesting weekend in Spanish football to spot.

Sevilla enter this clash as the firm favourites on the soccer odds board, matched at -138 or thereabouts depending on your choice online sports betting shop. Underscoring those firm soccer odds is a nearly perfect home record: 6-3-0 through nine games and highlighted by 17 goals scored and just five conceded. That undefeated run of form is going to be put on the line when Malaga descends on Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.

Los Rojiblancos come into this game riding the momentum of nine straight games undefeated (home and away) across all competitions. Eight wins and a draw, to break it down further. During this run, they've scored 21 goals and conceded a paltry four goals. Six games were clean sheets, including back-to-back clean sheets in their last two fixtures: 2-0 over Almeria on the road and 4-0 over Granada at home in Copa del Rey.

Taking out just their Primera Division contribution, it's as follows: five games undefeated (four wins and a draw) all while scoring nine goals and conceding one in a 5-1 win over Granada. Offensively, there's a lot to like about Sevilla's frontline, but it's the defence that has been the guiding story, conceding 17 goals (third fewest in the league) through 17 games.  

Malaga Huge Underdogs  
Although Malaga are sat just three places down the ladder, five points adrift on the back of a 9-4-5 record on the season, bookies send them into this clash as the huge +425 underdogs. Heck, even the draw is trading at significantly long +260 soccer odds. Do the odds makers have it right or are they underrating Malaga significantly?

Los Bosquerones have the slight head-to-head edge over Sevilla. By the numbers they are 3-2-1 in their last six meetings but, crucially, they are undefeated in the last five fixtures. Malaga will definitely be motivated by that strong run of form against their hosts this weekend to improve their cause in Primera Division, not to mention put paid on their market quote at the soccer betting window.

Malaga won four of their last five road games in Primera Division. Most recently, they beat Deportivo 1-0 and Elche 2-1. Prior to that they beat Real Sociedad and Cordoba. Needless to say, all four are bottom-half dwellers in the current Primera Division, and Los Rojiblancos are sure to be a sterner test. Yet, Malaga's defence is almost as good as Sevilla's having conceded just 18 goals through the course of 18 games. If they're going to rely on one thing, it's their defence to keep them in the game.

Soccer Betting Verdict
On the balance of the head-to-head between these two clubs and the strength of defence in both camps, the soccer betting market on this game seems to be rather overzealous and lopsided. Malaga has the better head-to-head which can't be ignored. That only makes them a more tempting soccer pick at their inflated +425 soccer odds. Yet, the argument against it is whether soccer bettors can trust Los Bosquerones to come through on the road against top-half opposition.

Undeniably, Sevilla have good form going into this game and they'll be motivated to beat Los Bosquerones, who have been a tough nut to crack in recent years by them. But backing them at -138 to win straight up on your soccer picks is in no way a certain bet.  They should win, but don't go betting the farm on it.

Soccer Picks: Sevilla -138

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