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Aces vs. Wings WNBA Picks: Dallas a Live Underdog

Aces vs. Wings WNBA Picks: Dallas a Live Underdog
Tyasha Harris #52 of the Dallas Wings dribbles up the court against the Chicago Sky during the first half at Wintrust Arena on August 02, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The Las Vegas Aces remains in the mix for the top seed while the Dallas Wings aims to move closer to booking their own spot in the WNBA Playoffs. Here are our picks for this Aces-Wings matchup.

One of two WNBA games scheduled for Thursday is a Western Conference tilt between the Las Vegas Aces and Dallas Wings.

The Aces (15-16 against the spread, 14-15-2 Over/Under) enter the matchup atop the West and just one game back of Chicago for the best record in the entire WNBA. Las Vegas has already clinched a playoff berth but did suffer a defeat on the road against Washington in their most recent contest on Aug. 2. 

As for the Wings (18-11-1 ATS, 17-13 O/U), they enter this contest off an impressive road win over Chicago. Dallas has won three of its last four games overall but is just 5-9 when playing at home this season. That mark will need to improve if the Wings are to secure a playoff spot.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Aces and Wings (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aces vs. Wings Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Aug. 4, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN3
Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX

Aces vs. Wings Odds Analysis

Despite the fact that both momentum and home court favor the Wings, oddsmakers have installed the Aces as a pretty sizeable favorite. Opening lines mirrored the current point spread that makes the Aces 8.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the opening total for the matchup varied a bit between sportsbooks. These discrepancies still exist at the time of writing. While the market consensus sits at 171.5, bettors can find the total sitting a full point lower at select shops.

Early public ticket percentages at DraftKings paint an interesting picture for this game. As far as the point spread is concerned, action has been evenly split. However, 82% of the handle has actually come in on the underdog Wings. With the total, 69% of all wagers have been on the Under. Despite this, over 70% of the handle has been on the Over.

Aces vs. Wings Picks

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Aces vs. Wings Predictions

Wings +8.5 (-110)

While the Aces are still battling for the No. 1 overall seed, the fact that Las Vegas has already secured its spot in the postseason could impact intensity down the stretch. Contrast this to a Wings team that has yet to clinch a playoff berth and motivation could be a factor in Thursday’s matchup.

While the Aces have largely achieved positive results over the past few weeks, they have certainly benefitted from playing several games against inferior competition. Excluding a road win over Connecticut and the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final against Chicago, one would have to go all the way back to the month of May to find the last time that Las Vegas beat a team with a winning record!

Despite these concerns regarding the quality of their wins, the Aces continue to be power rated higher than almost every other team. When it comes to recent head-to-head matchups against the Wings, however, that has proven irrelevant. 

In addition to covering the betting spread in two previous meetings against the Aces this season, Dallas is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head matchups. It’s worth noting that guard Arike Ogunbowale is questionable, but the Wings just took down Chicago on the road without her.

Over 170.5 (-115)

Given that DraftKings is dangling the total one full point lower than our other top-rated sportsbooks, it is easily the preferred destination for those looking to play the Over. 

The Aces and Wings are polar opposites in terms of pace. While Las Vegas has been the fastest team in the league and continues to average over 90 points per game offensively, Dallas checks in with the second-slowest average pace of any team. 

Despite playing at a slow tempo, the Wings have largely been able to overcome this on the scoreboard, evidenced by being fourth in offensive rating. If Ogunbowale is able to play through her ankle injury tonight, both teams figure to put up some solid numbers offensively. 

In addition, high-scoring affairs have been a prevalent theme in Dallas home games this season. Nine of the Wings’ last 12 home games overall have gone Over, and the Over has also hit in each of their last three home games against the Aces.

Wings team total Over 81.5 (+100)

Regardless of whether the Wings win this game, they have consistently managed to eclipse this team total of 81.5. Dating back to July 1st, Dallas has gone over this prop line in six of ten games played. In two of those matchups, they fell short by scoring exactly 81 total points.

The other key component of the Wings’ recent scoring outputs is that each of the three games where they fell short of 81.5 points came against opponents with a top-4 defensive rating. The Aces only rank sixth in that advanced statistical category. 

On the season, Las Vegas has surrendered an average of 83.7 points per game. The Wings put up 84 points the first time they hosted the Aces this season back on June 15. Taking all of this into consideration, the Over is quite appealing, especially given the even-money price point at Caesars.

Where to Bet on Aces vs. Wings Picks

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Aces-Wings picks made on 8/4/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.