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Aces vs. Liberty Predictions, Picks & Odds: Who Will Win Final Regular-Season Meeting?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 28, 2023 5:53 PM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

More than bragging rights will be on the line when the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty face off in the final superteam showdown of the regular season. Read on for our Aces vs. Liberty prediction based on the best WNBA odds.

For the fifth and final time this regular season, we get to watch the WNBA's superteams square off when the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty meet up inside the Barclays Center. These two teams have split the four meetings, meaning Monday's victor will have claimed the regular-season series in what many expect to be a WNBA Finals preview.

Speaking of the Finals, this result is significant because it could ultimately determine who will be the No. 1 seed in the WNBA playoffs. The Aces (30-5) have been atop the standings all year, but they have appeared vulnerable of late with a 3-3 clip. The Liberty (27-7) are now only 2 1/2 games backs after going 9-1 over their last 10 contests.

With these two teams trending in different directions, does the home squad ultimately prevail on Monday? Or is there a better betting angle?

Here is our best Aces vs. Liberty prediction (odds via best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aces vs. Liberty prediction

Liberty first half ML (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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For those who didn't read my Aces vs. Atlanta Dream betting preview last Tuesday, allow me to share a line from that piece: "There are going to be opportunities to bet against the Aces over the next week, as this stretch will be truly challenging for a team trying to lock up the No. 1 overall seed."

Let's look back on how that week has unfolded, shall we?

The Aces won by a dozen against the Dream, but our +16 ticket ultimately got home. Las Vegas was a 14.5-point favorite against the Chicago Sky two days later but won by only seven. The Aces then lost by 16 against the Washington Mystics as double-digit favorites following a trip to the White House.

It's been a long week, and one that ends with a superteam showdown against a fresh Liberty team. New York is coming off a convincing 111-76 win over the Minnesota Lynx on Saturday and has played just twice in the last nine days.

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The Liberty are plenty motivated after losing to the Aces last time out and also cruised in the only other time these two teams met in Brooklyn. New York rolled to a 99-61 win over Las Vegas on Aug. 6 in a game that got out of hand much earlier than all the rest of the meetings.

Both the Aces and Liberty have made it a point to get off to strong starts in most games this season, as they rank in the top two in net rating in the first half. During this recent lull, however, Las Vegas ranks fourth in net rating over the last seven outings. New York is still second, which it ranks throughout the season.

From a full-game perspective, my projections are right in line with the market. That's why we are targeting the first half instead, as we expect the Liberty to start strong against a tired Aces squad.

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Aces vs. Liberty best odds

DraftKings (-108)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Liberty 1H MLLiberty 1H MLLiberty 1H MLLiberty 1H MLLiberty 1H ML
-108-113-115-115-110

Our best sports betting sites might generally agree on the lone WNBA matchup on Monday, but this market illustrates the importance of line shopping. DraftKings appears to be the only shop favoring Las Vegas' chances of winning the first half, listing the visitors at -112 and the hosts at -108.

For comparison, BetMGM and Caesars have priced the Liberty at -115 to win the first half, while sticking a -105 value on the Aces. This is why we are racing to place this bet on DraftKings for a ticket we'd take at -110 or better.

I do think the Liberty ultimately win this game, so consider me tempted by the double result market as well. The Liberty are +140 to win both the first half and full game, which could be worthy of a nice sprinkle to add to this marquee matchup.

Get the best odds for Aces vs. Liberty with our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and bet365 promo code.

Aces vs. Liberty game info

  • Date: Monday, Aug. 28, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Aces-Liberty pick made 08/28/2023 at 11:10 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.