The defending champion Las Vegas Aces have yet to lose this season and are heavy favorites over the 1-3 Indiana Fever. See which market value play we like and why with our Aces vs. Fever prediction based on the best WNBA odds.
The young WNBA season rolls on with a trio of games scheduled for Sunday. Among the matchups is a cross-conference tilt between the Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever.
For the Aces (3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U), this contest provides an opportunity to extend a dominant start to the 2023 season. Las Vegas has picked up right where it left off after winning the WNBA Finals a year ago by racing out to a 5-0 start. Three of the five wins to date have come by lopsided, double-digit margins.
Meanwhile, the Fever (2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) have not been quite as fortunate to begin the year. That said, simply winning one of their first four games was a step in the right direction after Indiana ended last season on a massive losing skid. With a young roster, the Fever will presumably be more dangerous in the future than they will be in 2023.
Here is our best Aces vs. Fever prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Aces vs. Fever prediction
Fever Team Total Under 78.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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To put things bluntly, anything other than a comfortable Aces victory in this matchup would come as a major surprise. Las Vegas simply overwhelms Indiana in terms of talent and experience. Hence, the lopsided point spread of Aces -15.5 which is the prevailing line across the market.
For bettors specifically looking to fire ATS, leaning toward the defending champs feels like the right side. However, our best bet for this matchup will be to play the Under on the Fever team total at BetMGM where the line of 78.5 sits a full point higher than all other sportsbooks in the market.
Indiana comes into this game ranked dead last in the WNBA in scoring offense (75.5 points per game) and team field goal percentage (39.6%). The Fever have also been abysmal from beyond the arc, hitting on only 27.7% of their attempted 3-pointers. The only game in which the Fever successfully cleared this team total prop line was also their only victory of the season.
As for the Aces, they have only allowed more than 73 points twice in their first five games. Those matchups came against the Los Angeles Sparks and the Atlanta Dream, two teams that notably have a bit more in terms of reliable offensive firepower than what Indiana brings to the table.
It would likely take a significant uptick in shooting by Indiana or a total lapse in defense by the Aces with the game comfortably in hand late for the Over on this prop to hit.
Aces vs. Fever best odds
It shouldn’t be lost on bettors that this same prop is listed with an Over/Under of 77.5 at all other major shops aside from BetMGM. One need not look any further than the fact that the Fever scored exactly 78 points in their most recent game to understand why it is worth laying five extra cents to get an extra point of value on the prop line itself.
Aces vs. Fever game info
- Date: Sunday, June 4, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Aces vs. Fever picks made 6/4/2023 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
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