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Breanna Stewart of the Seattle Storm reacts after a basket against the Las Vegas Aces during overtime in Game 3 of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs semifinals at Climate Pledge Arena.
Breanna Stewart of the Seattle Storm reacts after a basket against the Las Vegas Aces during overtime in Game 3 of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs semifinals at Climate Pledge Arena on September 04, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

Over 80% of the betting handle wagered on the spread likes the Seattle Storm to bounce back at home and force a decisive Game 5 against the Las Vegas Aces. We break down the Game 4 matchup with our top Aces-Storm picks. 

The WNBA Playoffs continue Tuesday with a pair of Game 4 matchups in the Semifinal Round. The nightcap out west will see the Aces and Storm renew hostilities with Las Vegas holding a 2-1 series lead.

Thus far, this series has provided a little bit of everything. The Storm dictated the pace of both Games 1 and 2 on the road, but managed to win only the opener. Sunday’s Game 3 in Seattle was a higher-scoring affair, thus falling more in line with the Aces’ typical style of play. 

Las Vegas pulled out an overtime win in Game 3 thanks to outscoring the Storm 18-6 in the extra period. Tuesday will see the Aces attempt to punch their ticket to the 2022 WNBA Finals. Meanwhile, Seattle must win in order to extend this series to a decisive Game 5.

Here are my WNBA picks for Tuesday’s playoff game between the Aces and Storm (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aces vs. Storm Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 6, 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA

Aces vs. Storm Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers opened the spread for Game 4 at an even pick ’em. It’s hard to argue against that assessment given just how tight the first three games of this series have been. 

The market has since moved the odds to favor the Storm by all of a single point. Given that 81% of the total handle wagered on the spread at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Seattle, it’s easy to identify why this move has taken place. 

As for the total, bookmakers first set the line at 167.5. Despite the fact that Game 3 was easily the highest-scoring of the series to date, the consensus Over/Under has dropped one full point to 166.5.

Aces vs. Storm Picks

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Aces vs. Storm ATS Pick

Storm -1.5 (+100) ★★

The Storm simply had too many lapses on defense in Game 3. The fact that Seattle even managed to force overtime in a game where they allowed Las Vegas to shoot over 52% from the field is honestly remarkable. Once again, it was A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray spearheading the effort offensively for Las Vegas. The duo combined for 63 of the Aces’ 110 total points.

Las Vegas also connected on 43% of its  three-point attempts in Game 3. Given that Seattle held opponents to just 32% from beyond the arc during the regular season, the Aces will be hard-pressed to replicate their Game 3 shooting numbers.

Perhaps the most surprising development of all in Sunday’s contest was how the Aces largely dominated on the boards. Las Vegas held a 46-31 rebounding advantage for the game and also doubled up the Storm on the offensive glass. Dearica Hamby played only four minutes in her first game action in several weeks, but it was Wilson and Kiah Stokes who were the stalwarts on the boards for the Aces with 11 and 12 rebounds, respectively.

Of the Storm’s 31 total rebounds, Breanna Stewart accounted for 15 of them by herself. Once again, it’s remarkable that the game went to overtime despite Seattle being so thoroughly outclassed on the boards. With so much room for statistical regression to the mean, the Storm are the preferred side for Tuesday's ATS play.

Bettors should be aware that BetMGM’s line of Storm -1.5 is a half-point higher than what some other books are offering. However, given that the spread is so close to a pick ’em, the option to lay less than a bucket at +100 odds is the best value play available.

Aces vs. Storm O/U Pick

Under 166.5 (-110) 

Let’s face it: betting on game totals whenever the Aces and Storm have gotten together lately has been quite an adventure. Sunday’s contest marked the fourth straight head-to-head meeting in which the final point total was more than 20 points off from the closing betting line. After the first two games of this series flew under their respective totals, Game 3 wound up 43 points over the closing line of 165.

A pace that favored the Storm in the first two games of this series completely flipped on Sunday. The Aces led the WNBA in both scoring offense and average pace all season. Seattle’s failure to control the glass and generate defensive stops led to Game 3 playing out as a track meet. 

Facing elimination, it seems logical that the Storm will prioritize playing stingy defense and slowing down the tempo of Game 4. Once again, the expected regression of the Aces’ unsustainable shooting percentages from Game 3 is a factor in this handicap.

Aces vs. Storm Prop Pick

Stewart Under 9.5 rebounds (-106) ★★★

As previously noted, Breanna Stewart accounted for nearly half of the Storm’s team rebounding total by herself on Sunday. However, that 15-rebound performance actually marked the first time in this semifinal series that Stewart finished with double-digit boards. In Games 1 and 2, she accounted for only six and seven rebounds, respectively.

While the notion that superstars are at their best when their team needs them the most would seem to favor playing the Over on Stewart’s Game 4 rebounding prop total of 9.5, the numbers suggest otherwise. During the regular season, Stewart actually averaged just 7.6 rebounds per game. Thus, she would need to exceed her per-game average by over two full rebounds to clear the prop total.

For as bad as the Storm were on the glass in Game 3, Stewart is hardly the only player who is capable of making an impact. The fact that the odds on this prop are juiced in favor of her finishing with 10-plus rebounds makes a contrarian play on the Under that much more attractive.

Where to Bet on Aces-Storm Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Aces-Storm picks made 9/6/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET