88th Academy Award Upsets That Will Add Cash To Your Bankroll

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, February 23, 2016 6:57 PM GMT

We handicap those dark horses and long shots that could get tongues wagging after being chosen for the most coveted cinematic award. Let’s analyze the Oscar odds and find the best picks.

Go Shopping For Lines
Before we get started the best advice I can give you about betting the Academy Awards – check that, betting on anything – is to have as many outs as possible. That means scouring the offshore shops for the best Oscar odds available on the bet of your choice. The lines I will use below will be predicated on which major offshore bookmaker will give me the most bang for my betting buck on my long shot selection.

Why should I be content with a return of +200 on the Big Short in the category of Best Motion Picture when I can surf on over to Bookmkaer.com and get a payback of over three times that at +630? The answer is I won’t be content because I won’t be lazy about establishing accounts at proven A rated books. With that, let’s catch a few monsters in our Oscar picks on February 28th!

 

Best Picture
The Revenant -225
Spotlight +290
The Big Short +630
Mad Max: Fury Road +7050
The Martian +13050
Room +13050
Bridge of Spies +14050
Brooklyn +14050

The Revenant is picking up steam in this category and though the leading man, Leonardo DiCaprio, is a virtual lock for Best Actor the movie is not the same runaway favorite. Yet it is still plenty chalky at odds of -225 therefore we will look elsewhere and seek a film that gives us more bang for our buck yet is not a wasted lottery ticket as it would be on Bridge of Spies or Brooklyn.

Let’s then turn our attention to The Big Short and toss aside The Revenant. The only other film in contention for this award once we do that is Spotlight with Oscar odds of +290. The Big Short grossed over double the money of Spotlight at the box office and nabbed the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures with the Producers Guild of America (PGA). It should be noted that the last eight consecutive Best Picture Oscar winners have won this award as a run-up to the Oscars. That is not mere coincidence as many of the voters for the PGA awards also vote for the Academy Awards using same preferential ballot voting system.

Oscar Upset: The Big Short +630
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant -800
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road +550 (The Field)
Adam McKay - The Big Short +550 (The Field)
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight +550 (The Field)
Lenny Abrahamson – Room +550 (The Field)

I was going to suggest George Miller for his directorial prowess in Mad Max: Fury Road but that would give me a return of +600 at most books so why not take what Bookmaker.eu is so eager to give and that being the field at +550. Yes, we can get the entire enchilada of nominees outside of the prohibitive favorite in this one for one price so I say – why not?!

Oscar Upset: The Field +550
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant -6600

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl +2200
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs +3300
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo +8000
Matt Damon – The Martian +10000

So it appears as though Leo is a mortal lock to take home the Oscar for Best Actor but if you want to wish upon a star (other than Leo) and dream a little dream then allow me to walk you on over to Eddie Redmayne dressed sensibly in pumps and a navy blue frock. While Redmayne is not a ridiculous favorite like Matt Damon in The Martian at +10000 he still gives us plenty of bang for our gambling dollar. At +2200 we could do much worse than pinning our money on an actor who has already given his Oscar acceptance speech for Best Actor once before.

Oscar Upset: Eddie Redmayne +2200
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Best Actress
Brie Larson – Room -2000

Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn +1200
Cate Blanchett – Carol +4000
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy +6600
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years +8000

According to those who are “in-the-know”, Brie Larson has almost as much of an iron clad lock on this category as Leonardo DiCaprio does in his Best Actor category. But show me a guy who’s got a sure thing and I’ll show you a guy who owes somebody money. Let’s walk on the wild side and go with my girl Jennifer Lawrence. Amazingly, she is but 25-years-old and this is already her third nomination in this category, having won in 2013 for Silver Linings Playbook. It’s hard to imagine she’s got about 50 more years in front of her to contend. At +6600 I will take a shot with America’s sweetheart to put another Oscar on her mantle.

Oscar Upset: Jennifer Lawrence +6600
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes