We’re nearly 150 days away from the 2016 US Presidential Election and it’s finally starting to look like we know who the two main nominees will be or do we?
Introduction: Polls Do Not Determine the US President, the Electoral College Does
The current Real Clear Politics average of all of its US Presidential Polls has presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead of Republican Donald Trump by 2 percentage points (44%-42%) to win the 58th quadrennial US Presidential Election on Tuesday, Nov. 8, and as you can see from their chart below, Trump actually (though barely) caught the former US Secretary of State on May 23rd, taking the slimmest (+0.02) of leads over her (43.4%-43.2%) for a day or two. Polls. Bleeding polls. The problem with polls and polling when trying to apply them to a US Presidential Election is that the polls reflect a candidate’s popularity and/or the possibilities the person answering that particular poll done by that particular pollster has of voting for one of the (still theoretical although presumed) candidates as opposed to the actual vote the person makes in their individual US state and whether or not that candidate actually ends up winning that state.
For example, if you voted for (current President) Barack Obama and you lived in Alabama, you feel like your vote didn’t really count as all of that state’s Electoral College votes (9) went to Mitt Romney. It’s an all-or-nothing game with the Electoral College, thus making the perceived Swing states—or Purple States in some circles—the real battlegrounds for the White House. The best thing for those getting involved with US Presidential, Vice Presidential, Winning Party and other various political betting markets offered, for now only at sportsbooks Online, Offshore and in Europe, is to take a look at the Electoral College map, apply some recent history and be your own judge and make up your own mind. At www.270towin.com, you can easily fill in your own Presidential Election Electoral College State map and see what you come up with. It’ easy.
And if Donald John Trump would actually be the Republican candidate come November—and it sure looks that way as we start to transition into the Summer months—would the 69-year-old have any chance of winning the big and crucial Electoral College states of California (55 electoral votes), New York (29), Pennsylvania (20), Illinois (20) and Ohio (18)? Maybe Ohio—a May 10 Quinnipiac poll had Trump beating Clinton, 43%-39% in a theoretical race although the current (June 7) overall RCP average in the Buckeye State has Clinton edging Trump by 1.4% (42.7%-41.3%)—but this is where the still presumptive Republican nominee loses the election, in that big California-New York-Pennsylvania-Illinois haul of 124 Electoral Votes, or a whopping 44.9% of the 270 needed to win the US Presidency. (There are 538 total Electoral College votes.) And that’s hard, if not impossible to overcome. Math is math and she don’t give a rat’s ass if you or I like her. That’s why she’s Math.
But even though the Mainstream Media has and will make this seem like a close dogfight to the end that you just have to watch, the real Truth is that this baby was probably over before it even began and that Hillary Clinton will easily win California, New York Pennsylvania, her home state of Illinois (Park Ridge) and some of the so-called Swing States. And the Oddsmakers know this, thus the current -207 (Pinnacle) to -350 (GTBets) range for Hillary Clinton. When a MLB Pitcher like the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw or the Cubs Jake Arrieta is priced as a -200 to -350 favorite, their teams almost always win (these L2 seasons at least). And these numbers are before it’s really sunk in that despite the wonderful underdog story—British bookmaker William Hill had Trump as high as +15,000 in late April of 2015—the actual head-to-head campaigning and Debating between Clinton and Trump hasn’t started and most don’t realize what a mathematical mountain Trump really has to climb to even barely win the US Presidency. The Oddsmakers seem, to really have this one right and not the Pollsters.
Current Odds Range US President (June 7, 2016)
Hillary Clinton [D] -207 (Pinnacle) to -350 (GTBets)
Donald Trump [R] +162 (SportsInteraction) to +588 (at Pinnacle)
Bernie Sanders [D] +1400 (William Hill) to +4000 (at Heritage)
Joe Biden [D] +2500 (BetOnline) to +5700 (WagerWeb)
Mitt Romney [R] +7500 (Bovada) to +30,000 (888sport)
Paul Ryan [R] +15,000 (Betfred) to 20,000 (at Bet365)
John Kasich [R] +25,000 (Betfair)
Michael Bloomberg [I] +50,000 (at Ladbrokes)
The Good Doctor’s Final Predicted 2016 US Presidential Electoral College Map
As mentioned, the modern website www.270towin.com will let you fill in your own 2016 US Presidential Election Electoral College State map, and, by using just a reverse rhetorical question—like, “Can Trump win Pennsylvania?”—as my guide, the below Projected Map was created and the results aren’t pretty for Trump or those thinking he has a shot. And the way many senior members of the GOP (Grand Old Party) have been reacting to Trump’s recent controversy, who knows what happens from July 18-21 at the Republican National Convention at the Quicken Loans Arena—home of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers—and how much the still leery old members of the Republican party get behind the real estate tycoon. Trump will likely emerge as the Republican’s candidate, but he may, in the Fall, be there as a candidate the majority of those who potentially may be casting a vote for him may be really skeptical of. But the same could probably be said about the former First Lady, right?
The Super Bowl, US Presidential Elections Often Underwhelming, More Bitching
Like many Super Bowls, US Presidential Elections often end up as predictable and boring blowouts, save for for a satirical candidate like this cycle with Iowa teenager Deez Nuts or for the impossible Overtime like we saw in 2000 when the US Supreme Court, the state of Florida and a Recount with Dangling Chads suddenly all became part of the process when George W. Bush “officially” defeated Al Gore to win the state of Florida and capture its (then) 25 Electoral Votes, and thus with it, the US presidency. The US Supreme Court voted 7-2 to stop the Recount citing a couple of reasons including the lack of a single judicial officer to oversee the insane Recount, Gore conceded and Republican Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris—the co-chair of Bush’s Florida campaign—certified the Florida election results, thus giving the state’s Electoral College votes and the US Presidency to George W. Bush. And the Governor of Florida at that time just happened to be one Jeb Bush, the older brother of George W. and son of former US President George H. W. Bush, the 41st US President (1989-1993). So Circuses evolve out of both Politics and Elections and the Human Element and personal Bias and relationships can’t help but to play a role in this whole mess. If the US Supreme Court wasn’t so Conservative at that point in time and Jeb Bush wasn’t Governor of the Sunshine State and Katherine Harris was a Soccer Mom or something, then maybe Al Gore becomes the 43rd President of the US? Or maybe they’re still counting the votes?
A Sports analogy to this escapade in Florida in 2000 would be like having to determine the UEFA Champions League Final on Penalty Kicks, but having one of the team’s Goalkeepers called for coming off his goal-line too much to make a theoretical Save by a biased Referee who actually hails from the opposing team’s country (and who was appointed to that game), and then seeing the subsequent re-taken Penalty Kick go in, giving that club from the nation that the crooked Referee is from the sacred championship. Unfortunately for most of us, both Politics and Sports are subject to the Human Element and The Powers That Be, which usually end up siding with the Status Quo as they simply look the other way—usually in the name of Money or Fear—like when a player on a team kicks an opponent hard in the nether regions with some obvious intent and then is not Suspended (at least) a game due to who that popular and key player is and his importance to his team. Film don’t lie, Chuck. Although totally out of our control, always beware of the Human Element when betting anything.
2016 Presidential Debate Schedule
The US Presidential Debate Schedule so far sees the three scheduled Debates on taps this Fall between the Democratic and Republican candidates for US President, and possibly Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who is polling at 10% against both Clinton and Trump according to FiveThirtyEight. The 63-year-old third-party candidate and former New Mexico Governor would need to get up to 15% in the Polls to be able to participate in the Presidential debates.
Monday, Sept. 26: Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio
Sunday, Oct. 9: Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
Wednesday, Oct. 19: University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada
Is There Actually Any Money to be Had in Any of These Strange Marketplaces?
If one is willing to wait until November to collect, there just may be some money to be made in a couple of these markets but it will require backing the heavy chalk-ess (Clinton) and backing her and/or the Democratic party to win the Presidency (Democrats -275, Ladbrokes) early before everyone figures it out or before Trump says something else which may alienate those who were thinking of voting for him. It seems Trump has already probably alienated a vast majority of groups in the US including possibly very big and important voting-blocs like Women and Hispanics—and the head-to-head debating and campaigning between Clinton and Trump has barely begun. So strap in, or maybe better yet, turn your stupid TV off or something.
It’s going to get ugly brother. And for those (most) of us, like myself who absolutely gave Trump no chance of being in this specific position, it’s still pretty astonishing. But with such a weak field on the Republican side, Trump’s brash and openly honest style—so non-politician-like—won over many of the GOP and Independents and maybe even some Democrats as hearing someone who actually wasn’t a Politician barking BS seemed refreshing to so many.
>From Sportsbook Review article, April 2015
West London betting exchange Betfair Sportsbook actually offered up the Proposition Bet: “Will Donald Trump Run For President in 2016?” with the ‘No’ priced at -350 and the ‘Yes’ at +250 at one time. And and that same time (April, 2015), William Hill had Trump priced at those aforementioned astronomical +15,000 odds (150/1) to become next US President, although the Electoral College will likely be a monster hurdle Trump can probably never overcome, no matter how much chirping he does. But should something go wrong and Trump not actually end up being the Republican nominee come November, perhaps John Kasich (+25,000 to be Winning Candidate, Betfair, Libertarian Gary Johnson (no odds) or maybe Independent Michael Bloomberg (+50,000, Ladbrokes) could be the next Leicester City? The Electorate seems mad enough to do anything right about now, with an April NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing that Clinton (56% negative) and Trump (65% negative) were disliked more by than potential voters than any candidates in US history. Seventy-four year-old billionaire Bloomberg said in March he isn’t running but what if all hell breaks loose at the Republican Convention in Cleveland and the GOP decides to go with someone perceived as “safer” somehow? Like maybe Ohio native Kasich? (Surely Trump would sue. Right?)
Anyway, it’s already early June on the calendar and backing Hillary Clinton (-207, Pinnacle) at the lowest possible odds out there right now seems like the only way to go despite the fact that Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders (33/1, Heritage) is still holding onto the slim possibility he will win the California Primary and that some of the Superdelegates theoretically already in Clinton’s ledger will end up changing their minds at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia (July 25-28, Wells Fargo Center), making all the actual voting voters did in the Primaries a moot thing and sort of defeating the point of even having these goofy-ass Primaries in the first place. Whoever said Politics was a like Circus has never enjoyed the sheer simplicity of the Circus. This is more like a never-ending game of Billionaire Chess for Power. And the billionaire with the Cotton Candy Hair actually aiming for the White House who lives in Trump Tower in midtown Manhattan virtually has no chance to become US President unless absolutely everything goes his way from now until, and on, Election Day. Everything.
And if the state of Florida and its 29 Electoral Votes go to Clinton early on during Election Night, we’ll not only have our first Woman President but yet another anticlimactic US Presidential Election race where most of the lemming-like populace was thinking it was all about the Polls and that Popularity Contest and not who actually had a shot to win each individual state (and the District of Columbia’s 2 electoral votes. Puerto Rico, Guam and other US territories don’t have any Electoral College votes in the current system.) It probably won’t even be close despite the Mainstream Media’s persistent habit to feed us these Polls—like the one tonight from NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly tracking poll which shows Clinton leading Trump 48% to 44% nationally—because they need to keep incessantly chattering about how close the damn Polls are (in an effort to try to keep your attention and on their channel and to try to appease their Advertisers) when the US election itself is all about winning the individual states and the Electoral Votes each one is actually worth in a system which was actually created back in 1787 to theoretically protect the smaller US states from having the larger US states from controlling US presidential elections. Oh well. They tried. Maybe one day Democracy will truly ring free and allow for true Democracy as is the one-man, one-vote type. A girl can dream...
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL FUTURES BOOK PICK: Hillary Clinton -207 (at Pinnacle)
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL WINNING PARTY PICK: Democrats -225 (at William Hill)
PREDICTED PRESIDENT ELECTION ELECTORAL COUNT: Clinton 303 - Trump 235