2016 US Presidential Election: Should Hillary Clinton Be the Favorite & What Could Crush Her Odds?

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, April 29, 2015 3:36 PM GMT

All recent 2016 Presidential Polls show presumed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton ahead of all potential Republican candidates by margins of anywhere from 2% to 7%. So, are there any scenarios where Clinton might end up losing either her party’s nomination or the race for the White House? Let’s take a look.

UPDATE: 6/18

Donald Trump has officially tossed his name into the ring for the 2016 Presidential Race, and online sportsbooks are adjusting their lines accordingly. Follow Sportsbook Review, as we will continue to provide you with the latest Presidential betting odds on offer.

Compare All 2016 Presidential Race Betting Markets Here

Introduction
Last week, we took a look at some current futures odds for the 2016 Presidential Election and what the United States Electoral College Map may end up looking like on November 8, 2016, where it looks like—at least from the current odds and situation—that presumed candidate Hillary Clinton [D] would likely defeat presumed candidate Jeb Bush [R] by a somewhat healthy (303-235) margin in the forecasted electoral vote and theoretically become the first woman president of the United States. But should the former US Secretary of State and wife of 42nd US president Bill Clinton actually be the odds favorite in this race and are there any things or potential candidates out there who could possibly derail her run to the White House in 2016? Let’s take a look at least three things which could potentially get in the way of the 67-year-old Chicagoan Clinton becoming the 45th president of the United States.

 

If Elizabeth Warren Suddenly Somehow Decides to Throw Her Hat Into The Ring
Elizabeth Warren is the 65-year-old senior US Senator from the Northeastern US state (officially a Commonwealth) of Massachusetts and former Harvard Law School professor specializing in bankruptcy law and is a renowned champion of the Middle Class and Working Families in the North American nation. On HBO’s Real Time With Bill Maher earlier this month (April 10), Warren nixed a million dollar campaign donation offer (enticing her to run for president in 2016) from the show’s host Maher while discussing with him the disturbing influence of Big Money in Politics these days—specifically the effects of groups like the PAC (Political Action Committee) Citizens United and the Supreme Court ruling supporting the First Amendment which prohibited the US Government from limiting any independent political expenditures (read Donation Limits) from a Non-Profit Corporation (like Citizens United)—and its domination over the Modern Political Landscape, which has now virtually made the Common Man’s vote and opinions moot in a system now seemingly a slave to Big Banks and Big Money, Wall Street, Lobbyists and the Military Industrial Complex.

And Warren (18/1 to win 2016 US Presidential Election, WagerWeb) made it pretty clear that she is not running for president, saying after Maher’s offer, “I’m not running for president.” Warren couldn’t have made it any clearer. And with recent rumors out that Clinton may be able to raise nearly a billion dollars in funds for her campaign, and then having a former president (husband Bill) who could help and tell his wife all the little tricks about getting elected president is just too much (right now) for the wise Warren to overcome and it was quite obvious during the Real Time interview that she knows it.

 

The Verdict
A Warren run for presidency is not going to happen this cycle, but under the current climate here in the US, the thought is that Warren could—with a fair start and a healthy number of donors—probably beat Hillary Clinton (6/5, WagerWeb) in a straight-up race on the Democratic side, and would also likely beat potential Republicans Bush, Walker, Rubio, Paul or Christie on Election Day in a theoretical presidential race. The vast majority of rational people have grown sick and tired of the the same-old, same-old, and Warren is one of the extremely few politicians left out there in 2015 without a sleazy reputation and reasons to distrust her motives or character as the country’s next perceived leader.

 

If Republican Candidates Bush, Walker, Rubio Gain Some Any Steam During the Campaign
This is the only way I think Hillary Clinton doesn’t get elected in 2016—is if a sane and moderate Republican making a decent, but not hate-filled campaign to try to get the approximate 10-11% of claimed Undecided voters in perceived Swing States (Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico), then somehow capturing the 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. It can definitely happen and canonizing Hillary Clinton the next US president may be happening too quickly now, although the betting odds say that it’s almost a foregone conclusion that she wins the 2016 election. The most logical Moderates (in my mind) who could pull this off are former Florida governor Jeb Bush (5/1, WagerWeb)—the 62-year-old younger brother of the US’s 43rd president, George W. Bush, and the son of the US’s 41st president, George Herbert Walker Bush—and Wisconsin Governor and ‘American Republican’ Scott Walker (9/1, WagerWeb) seem to be the only two Republicans who could make it a close race, be able to raise the gaudy amount of campaign funds (seemingly) needed to get elected and possibly somehow find a way to defeat The Clinton Machine.

Other candidates or potential presidential candidates who prefer a capitalized-letter ‘R’ in a bracket after their names are former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (18/1, Sky Bet), whom a recent Quinnipiac poll showed trailing Clinton, 47%-42%; Texas junior Senator Ted Cruz (33/1, WagerWeb), who trailed Clinton 47%-42% in an April 24 Fox News poll; former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (20/1, WagerWeb), who trailed Clinton 45%-40% in the April 23 Quinnipiac poll; and, Rand Paul (16/1, WagerWeb), who was surprisingly close to the former New York Senator in both polls last week (Fox News: Clinton 46%, Paul 43%, and, Quinnipiac: Clinton 46%, Paul 42%). And definitely worth noting here: The closest percentage gap (2%) between Clinton and a potential Republican presidential candidate came in the April 23 Quinnipiac poll which had Marco Rubio (9/1, WagerWeb), trailing Hillary, 45%-43% (Fox News had the race Clinton 46%, Rubio 42%).

So, maybe the Republican party can find a way to have Bush be the (logical and expected) nominee for president to simply try to snatch his Sunshine State of Florida (29 Electoral votes, 58-swing) and then use plug Walker in at Vice President to try to get his home-state of Wisconsin (10 Electoral votes, 20-vote swing), or, maybe even better yet, put 43-year-old Florida Senator Rubio on the Republican ticket at Vice President in an effort to win over the nation’s largest group and future majority, the Hispanics (Rubio’s parents are Cuban immigrants who came to the US in 1956).

 

The Verdict
The Hill may just be too hard to climb now with so much voter apathy, perceptions that the Republicans are the party Big Money with people like Sheldon Adelson and the Koch Brothers seemingly now dictating the candidates and their agendas, and the massive 126-electoral vote gap—current US president Barack Obama [D] defeated Mitt Romney [R], 332-206—in the country’s last (2012) US Presidential election. It can definitely be done though, but it will probably require snagging like 6 of these 8 perceived Swing States: Florida—29 votes; Ohio—18 votes; Wisconsin—10 votes; Iowa—6 votes; Missouri— 10; Colorado—9 votes; Nevada—6 votes; and, New Mexico—5 votes. And, with either Bush-Walker or Bush-Rubio tickets in 2016, a Republican can indeed return to Washington, DC and the White House and there may be an awful lot of value to currently be found in the no-longer niche 2016 President Election betting markets.

 

Conclusions and should Hillary Clinton Actually be the Prohibitive Favorite?
We’re likely looking at a Clinton-Bush presidential election in 2016, to nobody’s surprise, with expected large doses of negativity to be hurled primarily toward the Democratic candidate about things like Benghazi, Whitewater (again) and erased e-mails on her hard drive. Oh, the fun we will have, dodging phone calls from Hired Young Nimrods seeking our worthless and now meaningless vote(s) so Their Dude or Dudette can simply win (and then likely be able to again do nothing because of a bitter, gridlocked, millionaire lawyer-infested Congress.) Politics. The big things in this particular election (again) will be 1—The Hispanic Vote (lean Democrats), 2—The Women’s Vote (lean Democrats), and, 3—Voter Apathy (Big Edge to Republicans). It could be pretty close, but the key for the perceived underdog Republicans (Republicans Winning Party +125 , Democrats Winning Party -175, bet365) will be not to go too negative, have some unique ideas and clear future directions of their own, distance themselves from The Big (and perceived dirty) Money they will obviously be getting from aforementioned uber-donors like billionaire Las Vegas Casino and Hotel magnate Sheldon Adelson and billionaire Kansas business brothers Charles and David Koch, and to simply try to treat the electorate with some respect and not speak down to them. Hey, a girl can dream, right? I know. We’re doomed.

So the sad reality that we may have to grab onto at this Pivotal Moment in Time here en Estados Unidos is that at least we (probably) won’t have myopic real estate magnate Donald Trump (100/1, WagerWeb) as our next US President? Wow. Somewhere at his final burial resting place at The Tombs of Mount Vernon (in Washington, DC), The Father of Our Country, George Washington just turned over in his grave for the 14th time this calendar year. And it’s fairly safe to say, that if today Independent Washington would make a run for US president his odds to win may be around 1/100 and that the former Founding Father could very well be a great presidential pick and carry all 50 states in a theoretical 2016 presidential election.

Best Current Longshot 2016 US Presidential Election Pick: Scott Walker, 9/1 at WagerWeb