The 2016 US Presidential Election Futures Bet marketplace looks a little bit like the bar scene from Star Wars with some familiar names like Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian littering the betting board. But is there a decent approach to this niche betting market with a pick worth making from this far out? Let’s take an in-depth look and see.
A Futures bet on a presidential election? Have you gone mad John? I’m pretty sure that we answered that question about 323 stories ago brother, so let’s take a brief break from Baseball and Basketball and Hockey and American Football and European Football and take a look at from an odds Point of View, the 2016 US Presidential Election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016—the 58th quadrennial one in the country that invented Electricity, the Airplane and Funyuns. You’re welcome. Honestly, a Futures Bet on a presidential election is often done in the name of Entertainment, and the Common Man living from paycheck to paycheck probably isn’t too interested in laying out even a small amount of money in hopes of likely (and still hopefully) getting only around an Even return for his or her money on something over a year and a half away. But for the bettor with a healthy bankroll to work with or maybe for someone so Rich and Bored that they need some action on The Election, this is a realistic marketplace that probably does deserve its fair share of scrutiny, examination and even handicapping the way a sporting event would.
Only Democrats and Republicans and Bushes and Clintons Need Apply
In the Modern Political World that is the current the United States of America, only candidates chock full of Money from Rich Donors—sadly and robotically trying to buy Influence in a democracy theoretically created for The Little Guy and The Common Man—have any chance to become president in a nation that theoretically prides itself as The Land of Opportunity. And only candidates from two parties—the Democrat [D] and the Republican [R]—have any realistic chance as third-party candidates often have to raise huge sums of money to even make the expensive and time-consuming effort to try to have their names put on the ballots in each of the 50 states. These third-party candidates then usually become frustrated early on—ask former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura about this—seeing they have no chance as Election Day (or Year) nears, and thus, the great United States of America has had either a Republican or Democrat as its president for 162 straight years and counting. And it (the country) pathetically never really becomes about Hope and Change, but simply about More of The Same. And the voters who They tell that their votes are important, are realistically caught up in some hopeless charade that things will change and that Politics and politicians really do represent them, the people. But they don’t. Not anymore in the government of the US which is now so deep in propping up Wall Street, Big Banks and the Military Industrial Complex that anything west of West Virginia has become invisible to their corruptly bought eyes. And it’s profoundly frustrating.
So, the last US President that wasn’t either a Democrat or a Republican was Whig Millard Fillmore (1850—1853)—the only Whig president who didn’t die in office or get expelled—the 13th president who probably 97% of all US schoolchildren now likely couldn’t even name as a US president. And over 20 of the past 28 years—these assumed 8 Barack Obama years the lone exception—the progressive United States has seen either a member of Bush or Clinton family in the White House. All Bushes and Clintons makes Jack a dull boy. All Bushes and Clintons makes Jack a dull boy. All Bushes and Clintons makes Jack a dull boy. All Bushes and Clintons makes Jack a dull boy. You get the point.
And if presumed nominees Democrat Hillary Clinton (-350 to be Democrat Candidate for President, bet365) and Republican Jeb Bush (+200 to be Republican Candidate for President) do end up becoming the two candidates sent forth by their parties, and then potentially serve two 4-year terms as president, we could be looking at 28 of 36 years in the USA (1989-2025) with either a Bush or Clinton as president. And god only knows if we’ll be looking at a Barbara or Jenna Bush or a Chelsea Clinton (+150,000, Stan James) run in 2024. All three will meet the minimum 35 age requirement it takes to hold the office by then (42, 42 and 44 then respectively.) And yes, they do actually have betting odds somewhere on now 35-year-old Chelsea Clinton (yeah, you’re Old) to win the US presidency in 2016. This is planet Erf afterall. Let’s look at some current US presidential odds off the Oddschecker screen before I decide to jump Skelly. The Truth has a certain bitter taste to it.
Highest Current Futures Odds of Realistic Presidential Candidates
Hillary Clinton [D] +125 (888Sport)
Jeb Bush [R] +500 (Ladbrokes)
Marco Rubio [R] +900 (Betfred)
Scott Walker [R] +1200 (bet365)
Rand Paul [R] +2000 (Betfred)
Chris Christie [R] +2000 (Betfred)
Elizabeth Warren [D] +2800 (Paddy Power)
Ted Cruz [R] +4000 (Stan James)
Martin O’Malley [D] +5000 (Sportingbet)
Mitt Romney [R] +5000 (Sky Bet)
Mitch Daniels [R] +5000 (Ladbrokes)
John Kerry [D] +5000 (Ladbrokes)
Howard Dean [D] +6600 (Ladbrokes)
Brian Schweitzer [D] +6600 (Ladbrokes)
Mark Warner [D] +6600 (Paddy Power)
Jim Webb [D] +6600 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Huckabee [R] +6600 (888Sport)
Tim Pawlenty [R] +6600 (Sportingbet)
Carly Fiorina [R] +6600 (bet365)
Cory Booker [D] +8000 (Betfred)
Note for Novices: Odds of +2000 translate to 20/1.
Pop Culture Fools* You Can Bet On If You Accidentally Have Too Much Money
Donald Trump +15,000 (150/1,William Hill)
George Clooney* +40,000 (Stan James)
Charlie Sheen +50,000 (Paddy Power)
Clint Eastwood* +50,000 (Ladbrokes)
Eva Longoria* +75,000 (Paddy Power)
Alec Baldwin +75,000 (Paddy Power)
Kim Kardashian +100,000 (Paddy Power)
*Not really Fools
Some Other Available 2016 Presidential Election Odds
If you are really intent on throwing your money away but would like to have a sexy pick of a really long shot (who has made no made no indications of running for the office) and someone you simply like as a person, then maybe an old Democrat like former Vice President Al Gore (150/1, Paddy Power) or an old Republican like John McCain (125/1, Paddy Power)? Hey, even First Lady Michelle Obama (750/1, Paddy Power), the aforementioned Chelsea Clinton (1500/1, Stan James) and TV personality Chris Matthews (130/1, Paddy Power) have odds placed on them. If you really want to waste you’re money making your presidential picks, they will cater to our needs.
And, some other interesting Props out there related to the 2016 US Presidential election: Winning Party: Democrat -150, Republican +115, Independent +10,000 (Bwin); Gender of Winner: Male -162, Female +120 (888Sport); Gender Balance on Democrat Ticket: Female-Male -450, Male-Male +450, Female-Female +750, Male-Female +900 (Paddy Power); Gender Balance on Republican Ticket: Male-Male -250, Male-Female +225, Female-Male +1000, Female-Female +10,000 (Paddy Power); Will Donald Trump Run For President in 2016? No -350, Yes +250 (Betfair Sportsbook). And, my thoughts on another (Fake) potential Trump run? Well, The Egomaniac With A Large Caterpillar On His Head always seem to use a (Fake) gallant presidential run as some kind of Twisted Tool to help promote his NBC TV show Celebrity Apprentice, so maybe there lies some Perverted Value in the underdog (‘Yes’ above at +250). But, it’s really hard to trust a man who eats New York style pizza with a plastic knife and fork. And, it seems that the Gender of Winner marketplace may also hold some hidden value with Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren the top two logical choices (right now) for the Democrats and Carly Fiorina (66/1, bet365) possibly being a legitimate Dark Horse on the Republican side being potentially capable of capturing a decent percentage of the Women’s Vote and maybe ultimately getting some of those valuable swing States which will again likely make the difference like Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada and a few others.
Conclusions From This Distance and Any Logical Bet(s)?
Expect more of the same, and another likely Bush-Clinton election with very little contention from second candidates in either party. Really Big Money matters, and these two should have it aplenty, through family and personal connections made through decades of Politics with a capital ‘P’. On the Democrat side, Elizabeth Warren seemed more than ambivalent on a presidential run during her appearance two weeks ago on HBO’s Real Time With Bill Maher, and the 65-year-old senior Senator from the state of Massachusetts and former Harvard Law professor seemed somewhat reserved in the fact that Hillary Clinton would likely be the party’s nominee, although that does seem to be her style in general. As far as a Republican candidate with a fair chance to make a run at 62-year-old former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (12/1, bet365)—an ‘American Republican’—seems to be one with the least warts and the most upside in a field of some semi-delusional Republicans like former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (66/1, 888Sport), Texas junior Senator Ted Cruz (40/1, Stan James) and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (20/1, Betfred) who have either announced their candidacy, haven’t or maybe even won’t when Baby Bush finally announces he is throwing his hat in the old proverbial [R]ing.
And the best Dark Horse you ask? Maybe current Vice President Joe Biden (33/1, William Hill) on the Democrat side or maybe former businesswoman Carly Fiorina (66/1, bet365) for the Republicans. But who are we kidding man? A Dark Horse winning in the Age of The Bushes and Clintons? Blasphemous. Have some Asiago and mull the coming Gloom.
Anyway, the actual handicap of the 2016 election will again likely come down to how one can get that majority (270) of the Electoral College’s 538 votes in 2016, and Hillary Clinton will likely receive an enormous amount of support from Wall Street banks hoping to curry favor with the next potential US president and the 67-year-old Chicagoan Clinton has received donations in past campaigns from Wall Street CEO’s Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan), Lloyd Blankfein (Goldman Sachs) and James Gorman (Morgan Stanley), among others. So, Mrs. Clinton raising a record (and nauseating) $1 billion for this 2016 campaign is certainly not out of the question. Toss in the valuable connections she made and the added Respect she gained as Secretary of State, her experience as a Senator in New York, her toughness and intelligence, her potential appeal to Women and Hispanic Voters and then toss in former two-time US President husband—Bill Clinton—and a Brilliant and Kind daughter (Chelsea), and you have someone in a Prime Position to make a fairly easy run from the Democrat side and then win a decent enough share of the female, growing Hispanic and vital swing state vote to capture the necessary minimum 270 electoral votes next November.
And assuming all of the states presumed Red States vote Red and all the presumed Blue States vote Blue next November 8, and that the Electoral College Map looks alot like it did after the 2012 Election (Obama 332, Romney 206)—and even giving Sunshine State-homeboy Jeb Bush his Swing State of Florida (29 Electoral Votes, 58-vote swing) and its upcoast neighbor Virginia (13 Electoral Votes, 26-vote swing)—the presumed Republican candidate Bush would still only end up with 248 of the necessary 270 Electoral Votes needed to be able to end up calling the White House home. And, no 270 Electoral Votes, no 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Bush the Younger, Younger. It may be time for the first female president of the United States, the first, First Gentleman and a chocolate Labrador named Seamus roaming the halls of the White House. History has a very funny way of repeating itself, Buddy.
PREDICTED CANDIDATES: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Hillary Clinton wins, 303-235
PRESIDENTIAL FUTURES PICKS: Hillary Clinton +125, Gender of Winner—Woman +120 (888Sport)