2016 CFL Grey Cup Championship Betting Preview, Predictions & Free Pick

Friday, November 25, 2016 2:41 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 25, 2016 2:41 PM UTC

The final game of the 2016 CFL season takes place this Sunday afternoon at BMO Field in Toronto with the East Champion Ottawa RedBlacks taking on the West’s Calgary Stampeders in this year’s Grey Cup title game. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2.


BetOnline has set the CFL betting odds for Sunday’s title showdown and, after digging deep into the stats, facts and figures for this matchup, the following is my parlay pick for both the side and the total bets for this game with a complete analysis below. 

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Ottawa RedBlacks vs. Calgary Stampeders                                                             

Ottawa stumbled into the postseason as the East Division champ with just two wins both straight-up and against the spread in its final six games of the regular season. Following a bye in the first round of the playoffs, it regained its winning form with a 35-26 victory against Edmonton as 2.5-point home underdogs to successfully avenge last year’s six-point loss to the Eskimos as seven-point underdogs in the 2015 Grey Cup title game. The RedBlacks are now an even 9-9-1 SU on the year with an 8-11 record ATS. The total has gone OVER six of their last seven games.

The RedBlacks rolled up 425 yards of total offense in last week’s win and they are going to need an even stronger effort this week from both Henry Burris at quarterback and Kienan LaFrance running the ball. Burris threw for 246 yards in that game, but he only completed 57.7 percent of his 26 throws. LaFrance replaced an injured Mossis Madu and gained 157 yards on 25 carries. Ottawa gave up as many points as it scored this season (27), which could be an issue against a team as potent as Calgary.

After going 15-2-1 SU (13-5 ATS) in the regular season on the strength of a 14-game winning streak, the Stampeders rolled over West Division rival British Columbia 42-15 last Sunday as 7.5-point home favorites to punch their ticket to the CFL title game. Over the final 12 games of this dominating winning streak, Calgary lined the pockets of bettors along for the ride with a 10-2 record ATS. The total went OVER the 54-point closing line in last week’s win after staying UNDER in four of its previous five games.

Dominating may not be a strong enough word for the Stampeders’ performance this season on both sides of the ball. Behind Bo Levi Mitchell at quarterback and Jerome Messam anchoring the ground game, this offense averaged a CFL-best 32.6 points a game. Mitchell ended the season with the second-most passing yards (5,385) in the league and the most touchdown throws (32). He added another 365 yards passing and three scoring strikes to that total last week against the Lions. Calgary’s defense was the stingiest on the CFL in points allowed; giving up an average of 20.5 a game.

 Grey Cup Betting Trends

Ottawa has been able to cover ATS in five of its last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. However; it has failed to cover in its last seven games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games when facing a team with a SU winning record.

Following a SU victory, the Stampeders have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games. They have a record of 19-7 ATS over their last 26 games and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 playoff games.

Going back over the last six games in this series, Calgary has carved out a 4-1-1 SU edge against the RedBlacks while covering the spread in five of the six games. The closing total line has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in each of the last four meetings.

 Grey Cup Prediction

This matchup is lopsided on paper and it will be lopsided on the field as well with Calgary completing its amazing run to the 2016 Grey Cup title by easily covering the current nine-point spread. The backend of the parlay play would the OVER on the 54.5-point total line as the Stampeders could come close to eclipsing that number on their own.

CFL Grey Cup Parlay Picks: Calgary -9 & 'Over' 54.5    
                       Best Line Offered: At BetOnline                     

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