If the French Open has whet your appetite for tennis betting, it's a matter of weeks until Wimbledon with some great warm up action coming too. William Hill's Lee Phelps is looking at the tennis odds for his free tennis betting picks.
Two weeks of great tennis have come and gone in Paris and we only have three weeks to wait until the next slam. As the best players in the world warm up for Wimbledon, it’s time to weigh up if we can find any value in the men’s and women’s tournaments and how the French has affected the tennis odds.
We’ll start with the men and assess Novak Djokovic’s shock loss to Stan Wawrinka, before looking at the women’s betting with Serena Williams still dominant.
The odds have continued to shorten ever since Wimbledon 2014 for the world number one and even shrunk further following his loss in Paris. He is now 2.25 (use the Betting Odds converter to see US, Fractional & Implied Probability) to defend his title in London. He has been in three of the last four finals, winning two of them.
Djokovic is obviously a superb player, but in truth his game isn’t as suited to grass as the other surfaces and you can tell that by the lack of tennis on the green throughout his career. Other than Wimbledon, he has never won an ATP title, in fact he has only been to two finals.
When you can turn up and take the trophy without any warm-up why should he play on the surface I guess, but I would count this as a disadvantage IF he comes up against another man who is in form.
That man may well be Andy Murray. His physical level and general form is superb as shown by his new found expertise on clay.
Through 2012 and 2013, Murray only lost one match on grass: the 2012 Wimbledon final to Roger Federer. He then won the Olympic gold medal, Queens in 2013 and followed up by beating Djokovic in straight sets at Wimbledon.
I sense he is getting somewhere close to that 2013 form and his price of 4.0 (3/1) is tempting. That is the shortest price he has been and there is no doubt he is the main rival to Djokovic, you could argue they should be much closer in the betting.
The Swiss legend seems to be performing at Wimbledon on alternate years these days. He was all-conquering until 2011 when Jo Wilfried Tsonga knocked him out in the quarter finals. 2012 he beat Andy Murray to win the title and break British hearts, 2013 he lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky in the round of 64 and in 2014 he made the final, losing to Djokovic.
He is obviously a class act, but I think whenever he comes up against the world number one or Andy Murray he will lose.
I have to give Stan Wawrinka a mention here after dismissing his chances in Paris on Sunday. His career grass record is 21-20 and despite his renaissance over the last two years, it would be sensational if he won Wimbledon.
Rafa Nadal’s best days in London are long gone and hasn’t been past the round of 16 since 2011. One man who could be worth looking at as a winner of his quarter and possible finalist is Grigor Dimitrov. He won Queens in 2014 and lost to Djokovic in the semi-finals at Wimbledon, with sets three and four decided on tie-breaks. He also beat Murray in the quarter finals, so at 22.0 (21/1) he may be worth backing each way for a place in the final.
Wimbledon can throw up a surprise in the women’s game, so can we take on Serena Williams? I think so, although I did say that about the French! Let’s look at the key players.
The five time Wimbledon champion has just taken her 20th major title, even in the face of a great challenger and fighting illness. She has won 81 and lost 12 of her career matches on grass. She has lost in the round of 16 and 32 in the last two tournaments and 2012 was her last tournament win, when she lifted her fifth and won the Gold medal at the Olympics.
I think there is enough evidence to avoid her at 3.0 (2/1) with your tennis picks.
The two-time champion was my tip to make the final at Roland Garros and, although the bet lost, I was encouraged by her in flashes on clay.
She has obviously proved that when she puts it all together she can win slams, as she did on the London grass in 2011 and last year. She is on a 22-7 run on all surfaces this season and I’m looking at her odds of 4.5 (7/2) which has shortened from 6.0 (5/1) straight after her win last July.
I must admit Sharapova’s French Open performance disappointed me and it’s affecting my thinking on her for Wimbledon. She has an 81.91% win ratio on grass, that’s 77 wins and 17 losses.
Her loss to Kvitova in 2011 is the last time she got to the final day, since then it’s been R16, R64 and R16 with the Olympic silver medal in 2012 too.
Overlook Victoria Azarenka, she is fourth in the betting but has barely played grass court tennis and hasn’t had a winning record for three years, plus she is 17-8 this season overall.
Simona Halep and Madison Keys are both interesting if they get a kind draw, they had 6-2 and 8-2 records on grass in 2014, with Keys also winning one of the four titles.
For an outsider Ana Ivanovic is a big price at 51.0 (50/1), she only lost one match last season and won a title too.
In the men’s draw I’m taking Andy Murray at 4.0 (3/1) at William Hill and I’m going to trust Sharapova because of her odds. 9.0 (8/1) is too big for a player of her quality.