2014 World Cup Picks: Spain vs. Chile

Mike Richardson

Monday, June 16, 2014 3:30 PM GMT

After their 5-1 drubbing vs. The Netherlands, Spain has a chance to bounce back against Chile in a game that they can’t afford to lose. Luckily, your Humble Handicapper knows what the likely outcome of this match will be!


Spain So Far
Spain looked like they were picking up in this World Cup just where they left off the last one, at the Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, when they opened the scoring thanks to a Xabi Alonso penalty, but Holland’s Robin van Persie levelled with an exquisite diving header just before half-time, then Arjen Robben put Netherlands in front, before de Vriji added a third…then van Persie made it 4-1 with his second, and Robben rounded the game out 5-1 with his second, ten minutes before full time.

We all know what that means for Spain…they’re relegated to 14/1 long shots to win the World Cup in 2014, considerably worse off than the Favourites Brazil who are 31/10. The outright winner odds have Chile at a similar 18/1 to lift the trophy, and some bookies even have Spain’s Wednesday night opposition at 14/1 themselves. Those sort of odds might suggest you back a draw, but…


Enough with Outright Winner Odds…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
The basic win/lose/draw odds on this match have Spain winning at ¾ and draw at 10/3 and a Chile win at 9/2. Some may say that there isn’t much between  Spain and Chile on paper, and they are currently offered up at best soccer odds of 16/1, and 11/2, respectively, to top the group, but your Humble Handicapper knows that Spain will bounce back after their defeat. You should know that the last time Spain conceded five goals in an international match was way back in 1963, when they lost 6-2 to Scotland.

Spain won’t catch the Netherlands up in their race to make it out of the group on top, but if you consider that the bookies have Spain at 7/5 (favourite) to come second in the group you should know who will win this match.

The shortest correct score odds have the game ending drawn at 1-1 at 6/1, but your Humble Handicapper just can’t see Spain failing to win this one.

Other bookies agree and have Spain winning both halves at 6/4, while the game being drawn on the 45 and the 90 is at 5/1 and the game ending in Spain’s favour after the first half ending drawn is at 19/5. This all points to a clear Spanish victory.

If you want to go out on a limb why not back Chile winning both halves at best soccer odds of 8/1, but (in case I haven’t been sufficiently clear) your Humble Handicapper is telling you to back a Spain win.


But it Will Be a Close One.
The bookies like 2-1 and 1-0 to Spain at around 7/1 while 2-0 and 3-1 go out at 9/1 and 11/1. This means that if you think that betting on Spain winning is too dull back them to win with a single goal margin available at best soccer odds of 5/2, and also back both side to score at 8/11. Both teams NOT scoring is available at 6/5.
Prediction: Spain win 2-1 available at best soccer odds of 8/1 with Bet Victor.

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