2014 World Cup Picks for Portugal vs. Germany

Nila Amerova

Friday, June 13, 2014 5:02 PM GMT

The marquee clash between Germany and Portugal is one of the most anticipated first round matches on the World Cup betting menu. So without further ado, here’s a primer on this clash between the European heavyweights, complete with our soccer-betting verdict.

Germany expected to go deep again
Overwhelmingly, Germany are expected to go deep in the finals, if not win it all. They are the fourth favourites in the competition at +650, a market stance underscored by their solid runs in the last two World Cups, reaching the semi-finals of both. Granted, they’ve been slightly demoted since World Cup odds to win outright went to press, at which time they were the third favourites at +550 or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. However, such a nominal shift is a moot point. It goes without saying: Germany remains one of the top favourites to win it all, regardless of their exact position in the Top 4 hierarchy. 

Although drawn into a so-called ‘Group of Death’, Germany, the supreme masters that they are at negotiating tough sections, are expected to top Group G at -163. They are also the -800 favourites to advance into the knockouts. Simply put, they have too much perceived class over their opponents, including Portugal, a side that boasts the world’s best player Cristiano Ronaldo. Indeed, Germany are the favourites in their group opener against Portugal, albeit on the short side of even money at +110 to win outright at Bet365.

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Portugal at the disadvantage
In spite of claiming the world’s best player, Portugal are at the serious disadvantage across most relevant World Cup betting markets. They are a rather large +2800 bet to win the competition proper; as well, they are the +250 bet to win Group G. The only early World Cup betting market in which they are looked upon somewhat favourably is group qualification, where they are tipped as the -250 favourites to simply advance into the knockout stages along with Germany.

Going into the section opener, it’s back to the disadvantage theme as Portugal are tipped as the significant underdogs at +300 to win outright. Even the draw bet is set rather high at +230. On the flipside, double chance markets offer another outlook. Naturally, ‘Germany or draw’ is tipped high at -350, but ‘Portugal or draw’ isn’t too far off at -133. What’s more, in score-betting markets, the 1-1 score is priced the lowest at +500, while a 1-0 score to Germany is tipped at +550. Then, a scoreless draw is trading at +700, while both 2-0 and 2-1 to Germany is trading at +800.


Germany vs. Portugal Match betting tips and picks:
Germany need a strong start to underscore their World Cup 2014 standard as group favourites, as well as one of Top 4 favourites to win it all. The way the various markets on their group opener are positioned, however, it’s clear Portugal are expected to make them work hard. So it’s not a foregone conclusion, as some would have you believe. So what does the savvy World Cup bettor do?

Do you back Germany for the win on tempting +110 odds on the outright win, which suggest odds makers aren’t cornering this match in Germany’s camp entirely. By that token, do you chance Portugal’s +300 odds on your World Cup picks, even though they don’t exactly scream confidence in the upset either? Or do you opt for the draw at +230 as the likeliest outcome? The way score betting markets are set, it would appear the draw is the likeliest of all, actually.

The fact remains, though, the premium on the win is extremely high. Both teams will want to win this match, take all three points because the alternative would be unacceptable.  Should one of these two favourites falter in this match, it would put their campaign under severe pressure, if not spell the beginning of the end as the door would potentially open for either USA or Ghana to advance into the knockouts. Put in the balance so, Germany has the edge over Portugal. Therefore, the savvy World Cup picks has to be Germany to win outright in this clash, and at +110 to win outright it’s a value pick as well.

Soccer Free Pick: Germany to win outright at +110; 2-0 or 2-1 at +800