2014 World Cup Picks: Netherlands vs. Argentina Odds

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, July 8, 2014 1:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 8, 2014 1:36 PM UTC

Netherlands are a match win away from a second consecutive World Cup finals, but bookies’ favourites Argentina stand in their way. Can Netherlands upset the odds in their favour, or will Argentina come through according to expectations?

Netherlands at the disadvantage
Netherlands have navigated a successful course into the World Cup semi-finals, coming through on the attractive +100 odds to reach the penultimate round, which bookies installed during the group stage. Netherlands got off to a strong start with a 5-1 destruction of La Furia Roja. They went on to beat Australia 3-2 and Chile 2-0 to finish Group B with a perfect 3-0-0 record.

In the knockouts, Netherlands were very fortunate to get past a resolute Mexico in regulation time. A late gasp effort saw the Dutch notch two goals to win 2-1. In the quarterfinals, Costa Rica gave the Oranje a right run for their money. Los Ticos held them to a scoreless draw through regulation time and extra time before breaking down during the penalties. One could argue Dutch manager Louis van Gaal’s decision to substitute goalkeepers for the penalties was a stroke of genius as Tim Krul made two pivotal saves that sent the Dutch into the semis and that simultaneously broke Costa Rican hearts worldwide.

Argentina favoured
Argentina enter their clash with the Dutch as the favourites, but its debatable whether they actually deserve to be. Argentina made it through the group stage all right, winning all three matches. However, they were made to work harder than most expected they would be in a relatively easy group and that has taken the shine off their odds in some soccer betting circles.

In the knockouts, Argentina were put through the ringer by a gutsy Switzerland. As most favourites in the R16, Argentina were forced into extra time. Very nearly into penalties but for a bit of Messi-inspired magic that saw Di Maria score the winning goal. The quarterfinals pit Argentina against tournament dark horses Belgium. Although Argentina got on the board early thanks to Higuain’s first goal of the tournament, they were tested sorely for the duration of the 90 minutes. Most concerning, they weren’t able to breakdown the Belgians afterwards and they were only just able to hold on to the slim 1-0 lead until the final whistle.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Match Betting Tips & Picks
Odds makers send Netherlands into this clash as the underdogs at +240, which is a bit disingenuous all things being considered, namely they are a match-win away from a second straight World Cup finals. What’s more, Louis Van Gaal has proven to be a tactical genius at these finals. His shrewd decisions along with some stellar play from his Oranje have charted a course into the semis. So as far as value underdogs go, Netherlands are nothing but value.

Argentina’s path into the semis, by contrast, leaves much to be desired. Each and every match has shown a heavy reliance on Messi’s magical touch and revealed offense to be struggling something huge. When you have a player of Messi’s ilk on your team, offensive concerns aren’t necessarily deciding against lesser opposition. That might not be the case against heavyweights such as the Dutch are. Indeed, odds makers aren’t entirely convinced as they send Argentina into the semis as the favourites, albeit on the short side of even money at +140 to win outright.

Just like the Brazil vs. Germany clash, this match could go either way. Argentina are the favourites to win outright at +140, the favourites to reach the final at -143 and the competition favourites at +250 to win outright. Netherlands have been punching above their perceived weight class from the start of the competition and they are a match win away from gaining vindication for their run in the 2010 World Cup finals. They loom dangerous, so much so that Argentina nor World Cup bettors can take anything for granted. If anything, they would appear to be the value World Cup pick to win outright at +240.

World Cup Picks: Netherlands to win outright at +240

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