2014 World Cup Picks: Brazil vs. Mexico Betting Coverage

Nila Amerova

Monday, June 16, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

Monday, Jun. 16, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

Group A enters the second round as Brazil and Mexico collide. Both are level on points atop the table, but something is going to have to give. Can Mexico mastermind the upset, or will odds-on favourites Brazil come through on World Cup expectations?

Brazil odds-on favourites
Brazil enter their second group match as the prohibitive -300 favourites to win outright. Brazil are sat pretty atop Group A, but they are level on points with Mexico. Not exactly a commanding edge in group play, as it were. So they can’t take anything for granted.

As far as the field in Group A goes, Mexico presents the toughest challenge on paper. When you consider the nervy start to Brazil’s campaign, which culminated in an own goal (Marcelo) to give Croatia the early lead, it’s an indication of the burden of expectation that precedes Brazil. An intangible that can’t be discounted from the proceedings, overwhelming as it is even to the best of teams. Brazil did go on to win their opener against Croatia 3-1, but not without some controversy and dubious calling by the officials.

Indeed, Brazil will need to be a bit more focused and organized against a Mexico side that looms dangerous in Group A. Granted, Mexico’s qualification campaign left much to be desired, and that took the shine off their World Cup odds somewhat. But they aren’t the no-hopers odds makers made them out to be at the start of the competition. They are second in the table with one foot inside the knockouts after the first round. A happenstance that has seen Mexico move up in group estimation into second place at +900 to win Group A, behind Brazil at -1600 but considerably ahead of Croatia at +4000. As well, they are the -150 favourites to simply advance behind Brazil at -10000.


 Mexico’s disingenuous odds
The market on the clash between Brazil and Mexico is somewhat understandable, if disingenuous. Brazil have the match cornered on -300 soccer odds to win outright for good reason. First of all they are the hosts and home edge can go a long way. Second, they have a tradition of success in this competition, although their last title win came in 2002. Finally, they have a world-class team, which many pundits have earmarked to take Brazil all the way to the title.

Mexico, meanwhile, are tipped as the large +1000 underdogs to mastermind the upset. A disingenuous outlook if there ever was one on a quality side. Sure, Mexico seesawed their way through qualification, and in the process raised doubt and many eyebrows. But since the playoffs against New Zealand were put to bed, El Tri have perked up considerably, seemingly finding their mojo. They went 4-2-2 in friendly action since the New Year. Most importantly, they seemingly found their scoring feet – something that eluded them during the qualification stage. They scored 13 goals and conceded six over the course of eight friendly games since the end of January.

They carried the momentum into their Group A opener with Cameroon, and had it not been for referring blunders, El Tri would have won handsomely. Two Giovani dos Santos goals were controversially disallowed in the first half before a Oribe Peralta’s goal in the 61 minute gave them the 1-0 victory.


 World Cup Betting Verdict: On paper, Brazil do seem to be the correct World Cup pick to win outright at -300. The last time these two sides met was in Confederations Cup, where Brazil beat Mexico 2-0. You can back a similar result at +600 soccer odds at Bet365. Indeed, odds makers are gravitating towards a one-sided affair with odds on Brazil to win 1-0 being tipped at +550 and 3-0 at +750.

Nevertheless, Mexico’s +1000 odds seem just too tempting to ignore, particularly when the potential for the upset exits. Mexico did beat Brazil 2-0 in a friendly two years ago. What’s more, some of the upsets that have already occurred in the competition could have a ripple effect. At the very least, it could send them into this match with optimism. At the very best, it could motivate them to feats of greatness, which is what World Cup football is all about, really. It’s a long shot, but not as improbable as some would think.

Of course, if you aren’t willing to come out of the pocket on the full-out upset, consider the draw bet, perhaps. The straight up draw is trading at +450 or a combination bet, ‘Mexico win or draw' is listed at a tempting +250.

World Cup Free Picks: Go with Brazil, it’s the sensible choice. Cautious optimists, take a chance on Mexico to win outright at +1000. Why not, Costa Rica surprised after all. 

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Additional Recommended Picks:
Over 2.5 at -163
Draw-Brazil +260
2-1 to Brazil at +600
2-1 to Mexico at +2800
3-1 to Brazil at +1000
Junior Neymar to score anytime at -110; first or last goal at +350
Javier Hernandez to score anytime at +375; first or last goal at +1200
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