2014 World Cup Betting: Uruguay vs. England Picks & Odds

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, June 17, 2014 7:20 PM GMT

Uruguay and England collide in a must-win match, if both sides want to keep hope alive. Both are on the wrong side of Group D’s cut-off line, on outside odds to advance into the knockouts. Find out what odds makers make of this matchup and where the value World Cup picks are to be had.


Uruguay found wanting
Uruguay were found wanting in one of the biggest upsets of the competition thus far, a 3-1 defeat to Costa Rica that forced one of the biggest shifts in World Cup betting markets to date. La Celeste started brightly when Edinson Cavani put his side up 1-0 in the 24th minute on a penalty shot, which remained the only goal of the first half, and so things looked to be going to plan. Fast-forward to the second half, Costa Rica flips the script. Storming back with three unanswered goals in the second – two just three minutes apart from Campbell and Duarte (54th and 57th minute, respectively). It was a well-deserved victory by a small nation that proved it could dream big, and because Costa Rica were so convincing in victory, odds makers were forced to re-evaluate La Celeste’s stock in the competition. It just wouldn’t do to maintain their fancied odds.

Uruguay started the competition as one of the teams to spot at +2500 to win outright, according to pundits. Even news of Luis Suarez’s injury barely registered as a major cause for concern when odds aimlessly wafted up to +2800. Then the improbable happened. A quintessential underdog in the competition proper had the audacity to orchestrate THE upset of the first round (as far as improbabilities go) and Uruguay’s odds rocketed up to a whopping +10000 to win the competition proper. Naturally, Uruguay’s group betting odds were affected as well: once joint-favourites at +163 with Italy to win Group D, Uruguay are now the group’s underdogs at +1100 to clinch top spot. Talk about things going tits up. The ultimate irony, Costa Rica, former Group D underdogs at +5000, are the second favourites to win Group D at +500; albeit they are in top spot at the moment.


England impressive in defeat
England’s World Cup campaign got off on the wrong foot, a losing start to Italy. English fans, however, should take small consolation from what was an impressive performance, nonetheless. One of the best hails the UK Mirror in years.

Saturday’s Group D clash between Italy and England in Manaus was a clash of European heavyweights, received with appropriate anticipation and trepidation by English fans the world over. It was only ever going to be a tough affair; both sides offering plenty of value in World Cup betting markets, and the outcome a complete tossup, as it were. Odds makers sent Italy into the clash as the slight favourites at +175 while matching England at +200 to win outright. Italy took the early lead, but England quickly responded, drawing the match level before half time. The second half served up chances for both teams, but it was the lethal Mario Balotelli that converted his chance to lift Italy to a 2-1 lead in the 50th minute. From then on, Italy could have extended their lead and, at the same time, England could have drawn level many times over. But every ounce of creativity was met with resistance, posts, or simply spurned.


Win or BUST, Uruguay vs. England match betting tips and picks:
Thursday’s encounter in Sao Paolo is must-win match for both teams. England’s defeat to Italy, though humbling, wasn’t disastrous, according to many pundits. How can there be shame in losing to multiple World Cup champions Italy, crowned as recently as 2006. Case-and-point: England’s odds haven’t taken a huge beating. They remain steadfastly on +2800 odds to win the title outright (a tad optimistic?) and they are strongly favoured at -110 to simply advance out of Group D. The only market to receive a makeover is to win Group D, where England have drifted out to +800 odds.

Given Uruguay’s dramatic reassessment, this rather muted response to England is exceedingly contrary. It’s even spilt forth into match betting markets where England are the favourites, matched at +115 to win outright and Uruguay are the significant underdogs, matched at +270. The implication clear: Uruguay are more beatable than England are.

On the merit of their first round performances, that notion does seem to be correct. Question is will Suarez suit up for the clash. Surely, the 31-goal hit man changes everything. Put another way, is Uruguay con Suarez beatable?

Reports are suggesting the Liverpool striker is fine, fit enough and ready to get his World Cup contribution into the books. If so, that can’t be a good omen for the Three Lions, all intimately aware of the Uruguayan’s ability to impact a game. Taking it a step further, his return might suggest odds makers have panicked prematurely as far as Uruguay are concerned and, perhaps, not sufficiently enough where England are. It’s rather strange that where others have fallen to defeat, their odds have been appropriately adjusted. In England’s case, it was deemed mildly relevant, almost to be irrelevant.

World Cup Pick: Uruguay at +270 to win outright; Over 2.5 +100 for your soccer picks.

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