2014 World Cup Betting: Germany vs. Algeria Picks & Odds

Nila Amerova

Friday, June 27, 2014 5:37 PM GMT

Germany come through on expectations to advance into the knockouts for the ninth consecutive World Cup. Next up are surprise Group H runners-up Algeria, through to the knockouts for the first time in history. Join us as we preview this intriguing R16 matchup and weigh in on the World Cup betting odds.

Desert Foxes tricky
Pre-World Cup betting markets had Algeria tipped as Group H punching bags, matched at +3300 to win Group H at the start of the competition and similarly large to simply advance into the knockouts. Tale told Algeria have defied the odds to advance ahead of Russia and South Korea, coming through on their favourable -133 odds to advance with a 1-1 draw against Russia in the last lap.

Algeria finished group action with a 1-1-1 record and four points. They scored six goals but conceded five over the course of three matches. Conspicuously, two of their three matches pushed the Over 2.5 – a 2-1 defeat to Belgium and a 4-2 victory over South Korea.

Against Belgium, Algeria showed strong defensive abilities, keeping the Red Devils off the scoreboard for almost 70 minutes. Against South Korea, they displayed just how lethal they can be on offense. In their final account against Russia, they proved their worth on the back of a gritty performance, coming back from a goal down to draw level.


What Group of Death?
European giants Germany prove, once again, their superiority, rendering Group G – the so-called “Group-of Death” – eminently winnable. Germany advance on the back of a 2-1-0 record, which included a 4-0 thumping of Portugal, a 2-2 draw with Ghana and a 1-0 victory over USA. Thomas Muller has been Germany’s best player so far, picking up from whence he left off at the last World Cup. He has a tournament high of four goals (along with Neymar and Lionel Messie) and currently leads in the adidas Golden Boot race. You can back Mulller at +300 to be top scorer and at +700 to be Golden Ball winner.

Germany made easy work of a tough Group G, but expectations run high on Die Mannschaft so simply qualifying into the knockouts isn’t going to be enough. Celebrating such accomplishment is the province of lesser sides. Germany are held to a higher standard. Simply put: the pressure on Low and Company is to finally serve up silverware. Too many near-misses haunt Germany at the finals – they finished runner-up to Brazil in 2002; they finished third in the last two World Cups: after reaching the semis, both times they lost to eventual champions (Italy in 2006 and Spain in 2010). Most recently, they lost 2-1 to Italy in the semis of Euro 2012. It’s about time they realised their full potential.


Germany vs. Algeria match betting tips and picks:
Germany must be chuffed to have drawn Algeria in the R16. Of all the possible scenarios they could have entertained, this matchup was least expected, not to mention the most straightforward. Naturally, Germany are the hot favourites at -300 to win outright (or thereabouts across sports betting markets), fancied odds that World Cup bettors are sure to pound into oblivion in the coming days.

Algeria are priced at +1000, which is a high price tag that negates any idea they might have an outside shot. This doesn’t mean Algeria should be written off entirely. The Desert Foxes proved wily opponents in Group H, solid on defence and lethal on attack. Belgium, Russia and South Korea all underestimated them some, and they capitalised by clinching second place. It remains to be seen just how well Algeria will stack up against Germany, one of the tournament favourites to win it all, not to mention one of the most successful nations at the finals. These are unchartered waters they are wading into and their lack of experience could prove deciding.

For now, though, Algeria are living the dream. They’ve made history at these finals to reach their first R16, and it’s a beautiful dream. A dream they don’t want to end. Could that be an intangible in their favour? Certainly, it could motivate them to play better than most are expecting. For instance: they could defend against Germany as they did against Belgium to force a scoreless draw in the first-half, a bet that can be backed with a draw and Germany win at +260 in double chance betting. They showed delightful offense against South Korea, which suggests they could find the back of the net against Germany, in order to push the totals Over 2.5 at -167, although most expect Germany to push the totals Over 2.5 without any help from Algeria.


World Cup Picks: Expect Germany to continue their winning form but also expect Algeria to account better than most would have you believe, at least in the first half. Thus, our recommended picks include: Germany to win outright at -300; Over 2.5 at -167, Thomas Muller to score anytime at -333 (or first/last goal at +333); and Sofiane Feghouli to score anytime +500.

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