2014 World Cup Betting: France vs. Germany Picks & Odds

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, July 1, 2014 6:40 PM GMT

France and Germany overcame African opposition in the R16 to set up a European heavyweight showdown in the quarterfinals. It’s the matchup all expected when the knockouts took shape. So how will it go? Will Germany underscore their fancied pre-World Cup betting odds? Will France make good on their ever-shortening odds? Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up choice soccer picks.

France tested by Nigeria
France were sorely tested by Nigeria in the R16 but they eventually wore down the resilient Africans to take the 2-0 win and come through on their fancied -450 odds to reach the quarterfinals.

France started the tournament brightly. They blitzed both Honduras and Switzerland in their opening two matches, scoring a staggering eight goals and conceding just two. On the back of that frightening start, their odds in the competition proper were re-evaluated and promptly shortened, lining up with some of the top favourites in the competition.

Since the re-evaluation, however, Les Bleus have lost some of the intensity. A watered down Les Bleus settled on a scoreless draw to Ecuador – Deschamps decided to rest some of his starters for the demanding knockouts. However, a top-tier starting XI was made to work hard against Nigeria for the win. Of course, some credit must be given the Super Eagles for rising to the occasion and really taking it to Les Bleus. Remarkably, they managed to nullify Karim Benzema as well, only France’s leading scorer at the tournament. Some of it is also down to Deschamps, who made some tactical decisions that clearly didn’t work. When he sorted those out later in the match, namely by substituting out Giroud for Griezmann, Les Bleus sparked to life.


Germany almost pushed to the brink
It was supposed to be a straightforward affair, so said sportsbooks. Instead, it turned out to be one of the most entertaining matches of the R16 and a lot tougher than the odds suggested it would be for Germany – something we alluded to in our World Cup odds update in fact.

Germany, matched at whopping -900 odds to win outright, had the easiest matchup on paper. Algeria were through to the knockouts for the first time in their nations’ history, wholly inexperienced at this level and thoroughly outclassed on the bench. They weren’t supposed to be a challenge to overcome at all, hence, their ridiculously large +1100 odds to win outright. Never mind pushing Germany into extra time, almost to the brink of penalties.

For a while there, World Cup bettors could have been fooled as Algeria played some riveting football, testing Germany sorely. Perhaps, Algeria simply didn’t get the memo, which stated in no uncertain terms that as quintessential underdogs at +22500 to win the competition proper they were supposed to bow down to the German Masters (listed at +400 to win it all). Or, maybe, it’s something else entirely, something that is increasingly becoming obvious about Die Mannschaft, in fact. Dare we say it: they’ve been on a bit of a decline since beating Portugal 4-0 to start the competition? It’s true really. Since beating Portugal so convincingly to start the competition, Germany haven’t been as convincing in their subsequent matches. This doesn’t mean they are ripe for the upset in the quarterfinals but we can’t simply brush declining form under the carpet. Certainly, they can’t afford another unconvincing performance in the quarterfinals, not with a side of France’s ilk standing in their way.


 France vs. Germany match betting tips and picks
As far as match betting goes, Germany remain the favourites albeit on the short side of even money at +140. Clearly, they’ve lost a bit of shine in World Cup betting markets. Their merit as the favourite is under debate in World Cup betting circles. The unspoken thought: How can a side that needed extra time against Algeria be deemed the favourite in this match? Here’s another consideration to mull over: Germany’s head-to-head against France in recent years isn’t encouraging at all. You could say, France have Germany’s number – with a 4-1-1 mark in their last six encounters (all friendly matches though).

France are matched at tempting +225 odds to win outright and the draw is listed just a smidge higher at +250. Indeed, France is a quality outfit with more than just a fair shot at the win, but not unlike Germany their form has also been on a steady decline through the tournament. This could be down to the burden of expectation (for both teams) or it could be a sign of real declining form. In any event, something is going to have to give.


 World Cup Picks
Based on performance, very little separates both teams. Hence, in our opinion, it’s a 50-50 split in terms of the win. If you have your loyalties, back your side to the victory. Certainly, you couldn’t do worse than back either France or Germany on your World Cup picks. For neutral bettors looking for angles for profit, however, the best strategy here is to hedge your bets with some combination picks. Take either France or draw at -175 or Germany or draw at -275 or, better yet, France or Germany on the win at -286. Other options to consider, include France to win in extra time at +1600 while Germany to win in extra time at +1200. On penalties, the win is equally priced for both teams at +1000. Having listed some of our choice picks, it bears mentioning that odds makers favour Germany significantly in outright betting markets – they are on +400 odds to France’s +800 odds to win the tournament. If odds were any indication...watch this space.
World Cup Picks: Germany to win a thriller over France.

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