2014 World Cup Betting: Brazil vs. Germany Picks & Odds

Nila Amerova

Monday, July 7, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 7, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

It’s the penultimate round of the 2014 World Cup finals and first up is a mighty thriller, a clash between five-time champions Brazil and three-time champions Germany, two of the most decorated nations in the history of the competition. Which nation will win this battle royale?

Neymar No More
Brazil advanced into the semi-finals at the expense of South American upstarts Colombia with a 2-1 victory in a furiously contested – at times, even, extremely physical and scrappy – match. Brazil are a match win away from reaching the final and contesting a record sixth World Cup title, but their bid received a blow on the heels of the quarterfinals. Neymar, one of their most influential stars and prolific strikers, is out of the tournament with a broken back. As well, Luis Felipe Scolari has to contend with the absence of Thiago Silva in the semis –the captain and central defender earned a costly yellow card against Colombia, which will see him suspended for the Germany clash.

How Scolari deals with these successive blows is going to have a direct impact on the outcome of this match. Indeed, once word got out about the full extent of Neymar’s injuries odds makers re-evaluated World Cup betting markets promptly by graduating Argentina into the leading role, followed by Germany. Brazil have fallen to third favourites for the title.

As far as match betting goes, essentially the odds are almost similar on Brazil or Germany to win and advance into the finals. If you want to nitpick, however, you could say Brazil enters a match for the first time as the underdogs, albeit marginally so at +180 to win outright to Germany’s +175 odds to win outright.

Scolari isn’t entirely out of options with which to fill Neymar’s role. For instance, Chelsea’s Oscar could assume the position in the starting XI. Jose Mourinho’s favourite (or go-to) midfielder hasn’t had a great tournament so far, but without Neymar to cast a shadow over him he just might have an opportunity to flourish. There is also Luiz Gustavo to consider, a player that is well familiar with the German system having spent a good portion of his career in the Bundesliga.

At the end of the day, surely Brazil is more than the sum of one player and one player only. Undoubtedly, the loss of Neymar is a blow but it’s also an opportunity for the rest of the team to shine. It remains to be seen whether they will seize the opportunity against a very tough German Mannschaft.

Germany’s potent Mannschaft
Germany are through to the semi-finals after beating a dangerous France 1-0 in the quarterfinals. Joachim Low came up with an excellent tactical approach to the match, even reshuffled his starting XI to produce a soundly composed backline that looked more confident than it was against World Cup upstart Algeria. Most importantly, they played within themselves in order to get the required result, neutralised France’s potent attack and Manuel Neuer gained a third clean sheet in a row.

On one hand, Germany’s offensive production in the tournament has tapered away since their 4-0 win over Portugal. On the other hand, their defence has been finding form, playing smarter and neater football with fewer costly mistakes as the tournament has moved along. If you subscribe to the maxim that defence wins game, Germany might be on to the winning formula. Indeed, they appear to be gaining in confidence from match to match, playing smarter, neater football with fewer mistakes. If they can get beyond Brazil, it’s almost certainly their tournament to win or lose, in our opinion.

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World Cup Betting Verdict
How can bettors decide between two such quality nations? On the bench very little separates these two sides in quality, depth and skill. On tactical approach both sides are led by reputable coaches, and while each might bring a different tactical approach to the game, they have an extraordinary pool of talent at their disposal to execute their vision. If there were an edge to Brazil, it’s home advantage and a favourable head-to-head with Germany, which includes a victory over Germany in the 2002 final – to date their only meeting in this competition. If there were an advantage for Germany, it would be their strong defence. As well, the absence of Neymar in the line-up should be a relief, one less worry to contend with.

World Cup Betting Picks
This match could go either way as evinced by the tight betting lines in just about every aspect of this game. For our money we’re backing Germany at +175 to edge Brazil in a narrow thriller. If you can’t decide between either side on your World Cup picks, look at the totals markets for one value pick. Over 2.5 at +140 is an attractive option. For more value, the double chance markets feature Brazil or Germany at -263 to win outright, which is a good option. If you have loyalties either way, taking Brazil or Draw at -225 or Germany or Draw at -225, might be more to your taste. 

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