2014 World Cup Betting: Brazil vs. Chile Picks & Odds

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 6:02 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jun. 25, 2014 6:02 PM GMT

As one of the most intriguing and action-filled group stages in finals history comes to a close, sudden death knockouts loom. Leading the way, hosts Brazil take on Chile in a one-shot, R16 match to clinch a spot in the quarterfinals.

Brazil hot favourites
Brazil enter the R16 as the hot favourites to win outright at -163. This favouritism is nothing new, obviously. Throughout the competition thus far – even in pre-World Cup betting markets – the outlook on Brazil has been favourable. Fancied in each and every group match, as well in outright betting markets where they are meaningfully set at +300), Brazil are proving worth the favour. Or are they?

Truth be told, their progress through the group stage wasn’t straightforward, and it was particularly void of Brazil’s trademark free flowing, attacking football. Their opening account against Croatia was rather nervy, despite the one-sided 3-1 score. While Mexico proved impossible to breakdown, forcing a scoreless draw on Brazil instead to the utter dissatisfaction of the home crowd and World Cup bettors alike. Only Cameroon rolled over 4-1, and allowed Brazil’s fluidity and free-scoring ways to come to life.

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Chile at the disingenuous disadvantage
After emerging into the knockouts, out of a tough Group B by upsetting the odds, Chile receive no reprieve. Standing before them in the R16 is Brazil, a tough ask to overcome if ever there was one; hence, their rather large +500 odds to mastermind THE biggest upset of the knockouts. Heck, the competition proper, because that’s exactly what dismissing the highly favoured hosts at the first sudden death hurdle would be. Even a draw at full time, which would prompt extra time and if necessary penalties, is listed at rather high +320 odds.

Any satisfaction or feeling of accomplishment gained at the conclusion of group action is fleeting, as matchups take shape in the knockouts and the magnitude of the challenge and occasion is revealed. Chile missed a valuable opportunity to avoid Brazil in the knockouts when they lost to Netherlands in the last group match 2-0. It was the first match of the group stage in which Chile struggled on attack, failing to find the back of the net. Not for a lack of effort, though. The Chileans tried to create opportunities on the pitch, and when that didn’t work Jorge Sampaoli withdrew a defender in place of another attacker to give them some added punch up front. It was all to no avail. Arguably, Holland’s defensive-approach to the game played a role in subduing Chile’s attack, eventually rendering it ineffective.  However, what really swung the match away from Chile in the end was Sampaoli’s substitution. Removing the defender late in the game opened up some room for Holland, which Van Gaal – brilliant tactician that he is – immediately pounced on and converted in to two goals for his Oranje lads.


World Cup Betting Verdict
From group of death to a sudden death in the R16, things aren’t getting any easier for Chile. Indeed, they look nigh impossible. But nothing is really impossible. Improbable? Maybe. But Impossible? No way.

For those looking to back Chile, there is good reason to consider them on your World Cup Picks at +500. While Brazil have dominated the overall head-to-head, recent form against their lofty South American neighbours is auspicious, namely a 2-2 draw in friendly action. What’s more, Chile proved they can hang with some of the World Cup heavyweights – they beat Spain and held Netherlands scoreless for most of the match. If Chile take a page from Mexico’s game with Brazil, hold Neymar at bay all the while creating attacking opportunities, they can realistically be optimistic.

Brazil carry the weight of expectations as hosts and the most successful nation in World Cup history. However, they’ve not been carrying that weight with ease. At times, they’ve looked uncomfortable and weighted down by it. Clearly, odds makers expect Brazil to light up in the knockouts as the -163 favourites. But what if they don’t? Chile might not be as straightforward as the odds makers would have you believe.


World Cup Picks: World Cup betting trends are leaning towards Brazil at -163, which makes them a popular World Cup pick. That said Chile to win outright at +500, or Chile to win or draw at +130 are both tempting options. Call it a hunch but we’re cautiously optimistic about this match going the distance into extra time, if not penalties.

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