2014 ATP Wimbledon Picks: Djokovic vs. Federer

Nila Amerova

Saturday, July 5, 2014 2:41 PM GMT

Wimbledon betting reaches a climax this weekend as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer collide in the final, the title on the line. Who will claim the 2014 Wimbledon crown? Odds-on favourite Djokovic or seven-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer? Heady question, indeed, so let’s find out as we breakdown the odds and serve up our picks.

Match-Betting Favourite Djokovic
Novak Djokovic enters the 2014 Wimbledon final as the -163 favourite to win outright, which is an extension of his favourable outlook from the start of the tournament. Pre-Wimbledon betting markets opened with Djokovic installed as the player to beat at +175. As the tournament ambled along, his odds shortened in proportion to the rounds and they always stayed ahead of the chasing pack. Any misgivings about Djokovic’s lack of grass preparations are well and truly forgotten. The Serbian starlet got off to a brilliant start and maintained his stellar form throughout the competition; his only hiccup came against Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals where he was pushed the distance. Those who might have taken that as a worrying sign needn’t have worried at all apparently, as Djokovic hit astonishing form in the semi-finals, making relatively easy work of Grigor Dimitrov (defeated defending champion Andy Murray in the quarters) in four sets.

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Grass Guru Federer the Value Pick
It’s been two years since Roger Federer has won a Grand Slam title; ironically, at the 2012 Wimbledon final (d. Andy Murray). What’s more, he’s featured less frequently in the conversation. Armchair experts and pundits callously dismissing the now 32-year-old Federer, no longer considering him a viable contender in this new age of promising, rising stars that are itching for the limelight. Yet, here he is, the Swiss maestro, the 17-Grand Slam champion and seven-time Wimbledon champion, through to the finals and – the best bit – at the expense of Milos Raonic (one of the said young guns) with a straight set victory in the semis.

Prior to Wimbledon, Federer won a warm-up tournament in Halle, marking his seventh title at the event. Promptly, odds makers re-evaluated Federer’s odds for Wimbledon, shortening his odds to +550, which made him the fourth favourite overall. Now, you can back Federer at +138 to win outright. Yup, that’s right. The seven-time Wimbledon champion, widely acknowledged as the King of Grass, is an underdog to Djokovic who has only ever won at the All England Club once in his career (2011). Interesting that, no?


Djokovic vs. Federer Match Betting Tips and Picks
Not only does Federer have the edge over Djokovic on this surface and expressly at this event on the merit of his seven Wimby titles, he also leads their head-to-head 18-16 lifetime, a run of form that includes a 2-1 edge on the 2014 season. Federer won their first meeting this term when he beat Djokovic in Dubai 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the semis, en route to winning the title. Djokovic levelled the score when he beat Federer at Indian Wells 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) in the final. Then Federer pulled ahead with a 7--5, 6-2 victory in the semi-finals at Monte Carlo.

Two-match wins more than Djokovic is a nominal edge in this day and age, hardly an advantage as it were. What the head-to-head does reveal from a tennis betting approach is that this is a competitive matchup: they are well matched, they produce some exciting tennis and the “W” could go either way.  So Djokovic may be the odds makers favourite and tennis bettors may like what they’ve seen from him at these Championships to feel comfortable to back him on his genuine -163 odds. Call us sentimental but we feel Federer presents the better value tennis pick at +138 to win outright. He’s on the verge of a record eighth Wimbledon title, which is a feat accomplished only by Rafael Nadal at the French Open – no other player has won eight titles at one particular slam. Federer is conscious about his place in history books, about what his legacy will mean to the sport. Any opportunity to add to his already extensive contributions is a source of motivation. Overcoming Djokovic isn’t going to be a straightforward thing but his two victories over the Serbian this season should be a source of confidence and optimism.

Tennis Free Picks: Federer to win outright at +138 in four or five sets at +450 or +550, respectively.