20 Pitchers You Don't Want To Fade When Starting At Home

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 1:48 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 14, 2016 1:48 PM GMT

For those who have not followed the OPS research by this bureau, I’ve proven in articles in recent seasons that more than any other pitching indicator, the OPS is the greatest correlator to success. 

Aside from the OPS, or other indicators, of a starting pitcher’s work, his TRGS is influenced by team batting OPS and team bullpen OPS. That’s what makes the TRGS a truer barometer of a pitcher’s past and future success than his personal W/L record. 

In the chart below, we will isolate 20 pitchers with a home OPS of .600 or less. Each pitcher must have at least 5 home starts to be included in the research. The chart will also include the pitcher’s ERA, his WHIP, his BAA, as well as his team’s home batting OPS, and overall relief OPS. With all this data available, we will then provide conclusions. 

For comparison, please note that the average OPS is .730.

Pitcher

Team Home

OPS

Team 

Relief OPS

TRGS

OPS

ERA

WHIP

BAA

Kershaw

.662

.609

6-1

.359

1.31

0.55

.144

Hendricks

.744

.639

4-2

.471

1.77

0.74

.187

Pomeranz

.653

.768

3-2

.486

1.52

1.05

.183

Salazar

.808

.698

4-1

.493

1.50

0.92

.168

Estrada

.788

.747

4-2

.509

1.77

0.89

.143

Velasquez

.636

.745

4-2

.523

1.24

0.90

.167

Syndergaard

.663

.640

3-3

.527

2.02

0.98

.235

Cueto

.707

.710

4-2

.527

2.05

0.87

.221

J. Garcia

.783

.670

2-4

.528

3.64

1.13

.205

Bumgarner

.707

.710

5-2

.534

1.90

0.97

.198

Lester

.744

.639

5-2

.540

2.05

0.89

.186

Arietta

.744

.639

4-2

.540

1.89

1.15

.204

J. Fernandez

.687

.722

6-1

.541

2.06

0.94

.193

deGrom

.663

.640

4-1

.551

2.03

1.03

.190

Lackey

.744

.639

4-2

.551

1.66

0.92

.186

Straily

.726

.883

5-2

.573

2.79

1.07

.176

Hammel

.744

.639

5-0

.575

2.02

1.16

.196

Archer

.676

.722

2-4

.579

2.33

1.06

.194

Quintana

.686

.675

3-3

.591

2.55

0.87

.219

W. Perez

.591

.757

4-1

.600

3.25

1.01

.200

 

Tallying the TRGS marks of our top 20 home pitchers leads us to the conclusion that if you are a pitcher with a home OPS of less than or equal to .600, your team’s record is 81-39 (67.5%) at home. I am satisfied with that record and the conclusion that there is a direct correlation between home OPS and home TRGS. For those of you who would like to tighten this a little further, consider the following superior records when our starting pitcher at home not only has a less than or equal to .600 OPS, but also features one of the following criteria:

  • 67-29 (69.8%) if our starting home pitcher has a less than or equal to 2.50 ERA
  • 52-23 (69.3%) if our starting home pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or less
  • 62-25 (72.2%) if our starting home pitcher has a BAA of less than .200
  • 35-13 (72.9%) if our starting home pitcher has a less than or equal to .600 home OPS and is fortunate enough to pitch for a team with a top 3 relief OPS of .650 (namely the LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, or New York Mets)

Please note that there is little, if any, correlation between a home team’s batting OPS and the excellence of their starters. In the case of pitchers who are that dominating from their home mound, it is apparent that pitching is the name of the game when handicapping these starters. 

In the following three articles, we will examine the correlation between pitchers with a POOR OPS at home, pitchers with GOOD OPS on the road, and pitchers with a POOR OPS on the road. Expect much the same correlation as we have found in part 1 of this article.

At worst, you now understand that you do not want to fade the pitchers on this top 20 list when starting at home.

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