Last Sunday in New Hampshire, I cashed in on Kevin Harvick at +600 as my top-valued favorite over Kyle Busch in second place. I am going with the same strategy this Sunday with the better value in the longer odds. Erik Jones finished third in last Sunday’s race adding value to his longshot odds to win this week’s event.
Using the posted odds to win at 5Dimes online sportsbooks for all the drivers in Sunday’s race, the following three offer the best betting value in the current numbers.
Brad Keselowski +550
With three previous Cup Series victories and the fifth-most points (663) in the current standings, Keselowski has taken a rather stealthy approach to this season in pursuit of his second-career racing title. Driving the No. 2 Ford, he has already led 790 laps through the first 20 events. This is more than his season total in two of his last three Cup Series campaigns. Keselowski has quietly garnered another four Top 5 runs and a total of 10 finishes inside the top 10 in his 2019 racing resume.
The main reason I am going with him this week as my top-valued favorite is his recent results at Pocono. His only career win here was back in 2011, but over his past eight Cup Series events at this track, he has placed fifth or better seven times. This includes a second-place finish in the first point race here this season.
Chase Elliott +1760
Current racing form has driven up the odds for one of the best young guns in the Cup Series. Driving the No. 9 Chevrolet, Elliott has failed to crack the top 10 in his last six events. Despite the current slide, he still has six Top 5 finishes, including an earlier victory at Talladega. He is holding down eighth place in the current standings with a total of 615 points. Elliott has led 409 laps in 20 races in his fourth full-time Cup Series season.
All the value in his longer odds to win this race lie in a limited track record at Pocono. Sunday will be Elliott’s eighth trip around this oval in a Cup Series event. He started this run with a fourth-place finish in his first race back in 2016 and he also placed fourth in the first race this season. All told, he has finished 10th or better in six of seven Pocono events.
Erik Jones +2200
Jones is only in his third season racing at NASCAR’s highest level and he has been making noise lately with back-to-back third-place finishes in his last two events. He broke through last season by winning the second race at Daytona, but at 14th place in the current standings, he knows that he needs a win to guarantee the No. 20 Toyota a spot in this year’s 16-driver playoff field. Jones has come close a number of times this season with six finishes inside the top five.
His limited resume at Pocono is highlighted by this season’s third-place finish in early June. He also took third in his first Cup Series race here in 2017. Through five runs around this oval over the past three seasons, he has an average finishing position of 9.6.