Jordan’s WNBA Picks 35-37-2
Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever
The Dream and Fever are probably headed for high draft picks again this season, but this afternoon they get a chance to play one another to break some big losing streaks.
The Dream have lost their last eight in a row SU, despite not playing that badly. The Fever have lost seven of their last nine and while they do get to play this one at home, their home-road splits have been a little backwards this season.
The Fever get off to some slow starts at home this season. They’re averaging 86.7 points per 100 possessions in the first half of their home games and that ranks dead last in the league.
The Dream have been even worse in the first half of their road games Atlanta is averaging just 81.7 points per 100 possessions in the first halves away from home, which is also last in the WNBA.
Now against one another in this matinee, things could get a little sloppy early. If you look at both teams last eight games, neither has been very consistent on offense. Indiana is posting just 93 points per 100 possessions in their last eight first halves, while Atlanta is at 86.4.
Even though both teams have been playing up in pace some during those losing streaks, it’s mainly because of their opponents.
In their last game against one another, the first half combined score was only 57 points, and while I doubt today is as low scoring, I think we could see a similar style game.
With that in mind, I’m going with an underplay in the first half and I’m thinking about teasing the under for the full game as well.
Not to mention that the Dream could be without Brittney Sykes. She was injured in the Dream’s last game. As their second-leading scorer, the Dream could bring even less offense to Bankers Life Fieldhouse if Skykes can’t play.
My Pick: UNDER 1H
Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
Dallas is another team destined for a high draft pick at the end of the season. However, they have also been playing tough lately and they are up against a banged-up team and they have had trouble getting up to play bad teams.
The Mercury are just 4-4 ATS against the non-playoff teams and if they don’t bring their best effort in this one, the Wings are going to find a way to cover this spread.
My favorite play is to pair the Wings in a teaser with the under in the earlier game, but the outright spread is still a good value at +9.5. It’s been dropping since it opened and I think that could be sharp movement. The Wings have a solid defense and despite their poor record and losing streak, over their eight-game losing streak, they own the league’s 5th-rated defense over that period.
It’s a bit of a risk, but with the Wings healthier and without anything to play for, they are a dangerous team for the Mercury to play here.
On top of the Wings playing better defense, the Mercury haven’t exactly been playing great defense as of late. Over their last five games, Phoenix has a defensive rating of 104.6, which ranks 10th in the WNBA.
My Pick: Wings ATS