Soccer Picks: Juventus vs. Real Madrid Champions League

Nila Amerova

Monday, November 4, 2013 1:26 PM GMT

The highly anticipated clash between Juventus and Real Madrid on match day 4 in Champions League is surprisingly marketed as a tight betting affair, with value to be had in both camps. Do the odds makers have it right though? Join us as we breakdown the odds and deliver our soccer picks.

 

 


Real Madrid flying high

High-flying Real Madrid have a stranglehold on Group B, sat atop the table on nine points following a perfect 3-0-0 mark. Sportsbooks across the board tip Real Madrid as the third favourite title threats at +500 future odds in the overarching market on Champions League, behind Bayern Munich at +275 and Barcelona at +450. While group-betting markets see them installed at ridiculous -10000 odds to win top spot. Yet, they go into this clash with Juventus as the underdogs. A bit of a contradiction don’t you think?

Juventus, by contrast, have been struggling in Europe’s top-flight competition, barely striking an audible chord with a 0-2-1 mark and third place in the table. They got off to a slow start by failing to beat bottom-stragglers FC Copenhagen on match day 1, settling on a lacklustre 1-1 draw on the road instead. Surprisingly, they then failed to quash a hapless Galatasaray at home, settling on a 2-2 draw to the chagrin of supporters and odds makers who had them installed as the runaway favourites to win outright. That they lost to Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabeu was to be expected. In spite of this unconvincing deposit in Europe they are listed as the favourites to win outright, albeit on the long side of even money at +150. Huh? What’s the deal? Or is this just a trap?

Juventus vs. Real Madrid betting tips and picks

To all intents and purposes this is a rather curious market. When Real Madrid are winning so convincingly, scoring in abandon (12 goals to date and conceding 2) and have top spot practically sewn up, one would think they’d be rewarded. Given the nod as the favourites by odds makers, if nothing else it’s the least they deserve. At face value therefore, suffice it to say that at +175 odds to win outright, Real Madrid are a steal for our soccer picks, the kind that one would be inclined to bet the farm on.

Juventus have been ineffective in Europe’s top-flight league so far; most concerning, against rather lightweight opponents that they should have dealt with successfully. Yet they go into this clash against the Spanish giants as the favourites to win outright at +150 odds at Bet365. Ok the soccer odds are close enough to make the difference between favourite and underdog seem like splitting hairs. But surely a winless Juventus can’t warrant a place on the short end of such a tight betting line?

Yet it can. Blame the impact of a big reputation on this market. Simply put, Juventus is a big club in Europe with enviable quality and depth, including one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Buffon. Expectations run high. And will continue to do so even when they flail about. It’s just the way it is. Sure their European campaign right now amounts to a paltry 2 points but the thinking is that Juventus can’t possibly continue on such form. They are too good to do that.

What augurs well for Juventus is having recently snapped a two-game losing streak across all competitions; they are after three straight wins, all of which are clean sheets. That those wins came against questionable opposition – Genoa, Parma and Catania – is irrelevant somehow because one can never discount the importance of winning form ahead of a huge clash.

Overall, they are a solid 9-1-1 at home with only Internazionale and Fiorentina taking points off of them in Serie A. Only Galatasaray were able to take points off of them at home with a draw, which in hindsight might be down to Roberto Mancini’s arrival to save the Turkish club. Real Madrid is going to be a tough nut to crack but Juventus is a side that can do it and at +150 odds to win outright at Bet36, clearly odds makers are taking them seriously.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: Widespread betting opinion is split down the middle in this game understandably. Many are obviously swayed by Real Madrid’s scintillating form thus far, finding their too-good-to-be-true +175 odds difficult to pass up. A significant trend however is leaning towards Juventus at +150 in this fixture simply because of their perceived quality. Moreover, life in top-flight almost assuredly rests on the outcome of this game and that is motivation that can’t be ignored and could be the catalyst that revives their campaign. 

Indeed, there is value on both sides of the coin and bookies are correct to tip it so close. However, that being said, we are plumping down to Real Madrid at +175 to win outright. What tipped the scale is the fact that they’ve been the most convincing so far and accordingly should win. Perhaps Juventus have just left it a little bit too late to start participating.

Soccer Free Picks:  Real Madrid +175 to win outright and Over 2.5 at -163