Lock Mendes as UFC 189 Pick Over McGregor: No Ifs, Ands Or Buts

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, July 8, 2015 3:26 PM GMT

The Notorious Conor McGregor must now contend with a brand new opponent who owns a completely different skill set than Aldo. Let’s see what McGregor will have to do and review the UFC prop odds in the process.

McGregor’s No Wrestler
Chad Mendes will own the mat in this fight. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it and the only remedy McGregor will have is to get back standing as soon as possible. Even the most casual UFC fan understands that Chad Mendes is an elite wrestler with all the trophies and awards to back up that assertion. He is a two-time All-American Division 1 wrestler and has taken down every opponent he has faced unless of course he was busy knocking them out before he got around to tossing them about the cage like a ragdoll. Mendes averages 4.1 takedowns per fight which is a stunning number considering he has been knocking opponents senseless in lieu of grappling his way to victory.

Conor McGregor on the other hand is a destroyer on his feet and would prefer to trade bombs with a grizzly bear rather than grapple with the likes of Chad Mendes. Mendes is greased lightning when moving in for the kill yet McGregor’s enormous reach advantage may prove to be his staunchest ally when defending against the spectacularly effective grappling skills of his opponent. But we must assume that at some point Mendes will put the mad Irishman on his back and that will be the litmus test for how this fight pans out. If McGregor cannot right himself it will be a long, arduous road to haul as he tries to twist, turn, wriggle and writhe his way free of Mendes’s suffocating ground game. Five rounds of Mendes laying and praying while McGregor flails about on the canvas will make for some very unhappy PPV customers but it could be the road to victory for Money Mendes.

 

The UFC Odds
If this scenario looks promising to you then I would suggest reviewing the UFC odds that are being offered on proposition bets that will pay off if McGregor is contained for five tedious rounds of mat domination leading to a unanimous decision for Mendes.

All the UFC 189 prop odds can be found here but those that matter if Mendes smothers McGregor for the duration are the following:

Mendes Wins by Unanimous Decision – The best line can be found at Ladbrokes.com at +550.

Total Rounds – Over 4 ½ and the best line for that prop is +179 at 888sport

 

McGregor’s Weak Spot
Conor McGregor has not lost an MMA fight in almost five years and a total of only two in his career. Both those losses came via submissions with one courtesy of a knee bar and the other by arm-triangle choke. Obviously McGregor is a vastly improved fighter in all facets but there is no doubt that Mendes will be looking to exploit this perceived weakness once he wrestles McGregor to the canvas.

Yet it should also be noted that as stellar as Mendes’s mat game is he is far from a submission specialist. In fact only two of his victories have come via tapout and those occurred very early on in his career. In fact his MMA debut was marked by a rear-naked choke victory over the immortal Giovanni Encarnacion and again in his seventh professional fight he hooked in a guillotine choke over Anthony Morrison back in 2010.

While the chances of Mendes submitting McGregor are long they are not impossible. If you want to walk a bit on the wild side and put your money on Mendes ending the fight in this manner I am pleased to give you the best UFC odds out there to include in your UFC picks.

Ladbrokes.com will return +1200 if you bet Mendes to win by submission.

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