Fiorentina vs. Tottenham UEFA Europa League Pick: Scoring Price to Good too Ignore

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, February 25, 2015 7:21 PM GMT

Tottenham take on Fiorentina on Thursday with the R32 tie hanging in the balance of a 1-1 draw. Can the Spurs overcome worrying away form in Florence to keep their Europa League campaign alive? 

Tottenham Behind The 8-Ball
Tottenham going into the second leg of their R32 tie with Fiorentina at the decided disadvantage on the soccer odds board, after being held to a 1-1 draw at White Hart Lane last week. Odds makers are trading a Spurs win at staggering +300 soccer odds, while the draw is trading at slightly shorter +260 soccer odds. As far as keeping their campaign alive against these soccer odds, Spurs are trading at +150 to qualify for the R16.

Underscoring this rather pessimistic outlook on the Spurs is a concerning record on the road in European competition. The Spurs have just one win in three road games in European competition (1-1-1), a 2-1 win over Asteras on November 6. In all competitions, they have just one win since the New Year, a 3-0 win over West Bromwich Albion in England's top flight. Let the record show, they are just 1-2-2 in their five away fixtures to date.

In order for the Spurs to stand a chance in this competition, they need to either win outright in Florence or hold La Viola to a draw with two away goals or more. That's easier said than done. The Spurs aren't exactly rock-solid this season in any competition, oscillating on inconsistency and unpredictability. On the bright side, the Spurs have scored in all five away fixtures since January for an average of 1.8 goals netted (9 goals in total), one of which was a clean sheet at West Brom. If they can keep up the scoring on their end, they'll have a shot.

 

Fiorentina Have Market Cornered
Vincenzo Montella's men have the market cornered for the second leg, trading at +100 to win outright. La Viola are also highly favoured to advance into the next round at -188. Given Fiorentina's home advantage for the second leg and the vital away goal gained in the first leg, odds makers are obliged to react. It's not necessarily proof positive of certain victory and/or advancement.

Of course, there's no denying La Viola have the upper hand in this tie. They could try to stifle the Spurs and hold them to a scoreless draw, two simultaneous soccer picks that can be backed at +260 (the draw) and +1000 (0-0 score). What we know about the Serie A high-flyers, though, suggests otherwise. They are a fast-paced side that can be aggressive and dynamic that can play excellently on the counter and take advantage of any space available because of the speed of their forwards. The Over 2.5 is trading at -125 on the soccer odds board while the Under 2.5 is going for +100, an indication bookies expect a goal-fest, if there ever was one.

If there's one thing that could be cause for concern, it's the fact the hosts will be without their top keeper Ciprian Tatarusanu, who's reportedly nursing an injured back. That fact alone could open up the game, make predicting the winner an ambiguous exercise as well tip the balance towards a potentially a high scoring game.

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Soccer Betting Verdict:
As it is, this tie could go either way which makes a soccer pick on either side plausible. While the Spurs have struggled on the road, they've been able to score goals. That should allow them to give the hosts a run for their money. Fiorentina are sure to give it their all in this game with home field advantage and the slight edge but relying on second choice keeper may be deciding. Put all this together, and we can't help but lean towards soccer picks that involve scoring. Therefore, our choice soccer picks include backing the Over 2.5 goals at -125 as well as both teams to score. Forced to make a choice in the winners market, we're backing the Spurs at +300. The price is too good to ignore, but don't go betting the farm on it.

Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 at -125

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