Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
A pair of promising young pitchers both in good form may produce an ‘under’ Wednesday night in the Sunshine State as Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets (65-74, 32-39 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins (67-70, 38-32 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Marlins Park in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET in a game available on SNY.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.
Two High Scoring Games So Far
These two National League East rivals have split two high scoring games to begin this series, with the Marlins taking the series opener 9-6 on Monday and the Mets coming back to even the series with an 8-6 triumph on Tuesday. We do not expect another slugfest in this rubber game of the series though given this pitching matchup.
The Marlins are still longshot MLB picks to make the playoffs, but those chances are extremely slim as the loss last night keeps Miami 5½ games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card spot with Atlanta and Pittsburgh also splitting those two teams. The Mets have no such concerns while mired in fourth place, three games behind the Marlins and a seemingly hopeless 8½ games out of a wild card with 23 games left and many teams ahead of them.
Pitching Like Rookie of the Year Candidate
The Mets’ starter deGrom is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate despite not starting the year with the big club, as all that he has done since his Major League debut on May 15th is go 7-6 with a spiffy 2.92 ERA over 18 starts covering 113.1 innings, allowing three earned runs or less in 15 of those 18 starts!
Yes he had a hiccup two starts back where he was touched up for five runs by the Los Angeles Dodgers, but the youngster then showed his resiliency by allowing just an unearned run and four hits in seven innings in his subsequent start vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday.
That one bad outing in Los Angeles was the only start in his last eight appearances that deGrom did not record a Quality Start, and most were not cheap ones either as he allowed two runs or less in six of those seven Quality Starts. He also continues to display very good command for someone his age with 106 strikeouts vs. only 37 walks for the year.
Better Than His Record
Koehler is currently 9-9 for the Marlins, but he has pitched in some hard luck while posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP overall. He has also done his best pitching here at home, where Koehler is 6-4 with a stellar 2.69 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 56 strikeouts vs. 21 walks in 12 home starts covering 77 innings. He allowed three runs or less in 10 of those 12 home starts this season.
Kohler is also in fine current form having allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts overall and allowing a manageable four runs in the other outing. Most recently he held the Braves to two runs on just four hits in six innings with six strikeouts in Atlanta on Friday. Its also helps that last night’s Met outburst notwithstanding, New York is still batting just .232 vs. right-handed pitchers for the entire season, averaging only 3.89 runs against them overall.
Pitching Well vs. Tonight’s Opponent
Koehler has already faced the Mets four times this year and after getting nicked for four runs in five innings in his first start against them, he has allowed a grand total of five runs and just eight hits in 21.1 innings over the last three encounters, all three of them Quality Starts, with 19 strikeouts. Likewise, deGrom has been brilliant in his two starts vs. the Marlins this season allowing a total of one run and 10 hits in 14 innings with 15 strikeouts.
Look for both starters to continue their fine forms vs. their receptive opponents tonight as these teams stay ‘under’ the total in Miami on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Mets, Marlins ‘under’ 7 (-101)