Yordan Alvarez's Case to be 2023 MLB Home Run Leader: Pounce on Appealing Price

There's a slugger hidden in the second-tier of home run leader contenders, and he can be yours for a great price. Let's examine the outlook for Yordan Alvarez becoming the 2023 home run leader.

Yordan Alvarez hits balls so hard, so often that he may be leaving dents leaguewide. On balls, various pieces of stadium structure, and on pitcher's souls.

The Houston Astros' designated hitter surging out to 16 home runs less than a week into June and being among MLB's dinger leaders isn't surprising. He hit 37 in 2022, after all. Alvarez is within reach of league-leader Pete Alonso, who sits at 21. And he's even closer to Aaron Judge, who's clubbed 19 homers.

None of that is stunning stuff from a hitter who's established himself as a premier home-run producer at the age of 25. But where Alvarez sits in the 2023 MLB home run leader odds relative to his production is surprising, and it leads to an opportunity to pounce on value that likely won't last long.

Check out our 2023 MLB Cy Young Odds.

2023 MLB home run leaders

(odds as of June 6 via FanDuel and Caesars)

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Check out our 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds.

The Alvarez pricing gap

Only three of our best sports betting apps are still offering the home run leaders market in-season. Pricing gaps are always going to exist and be ripe for exploitation, but the one between FanDuel and the rest for Alvarez to lead MLB in home runs right now is bewildering.

Alonso has earned a comfortable enough lead atop the homer standings. But Alvarez is still easily within reach of him while five behind and only just over a third of the season has been played. Yet FanDuel is listing Air Yordan at +2300, which is a significantly longer price than the +1500 at Caesars, and the +1600 price through bet365.

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There's always an injury factor with Alvarez, which is part of the inherent risk when backing him. He's never played a full season in the majors, topping out at 144 games in 2021. But given his success so far in 2023 and general slugging prowess, the upside outweighs the injury anxiety that's baked into the FanDuel price regardless.

And if you're worried about an Alvarez injury, just know that Judge backers are getting just as antsy.

The health of Aaron Judge

Judge has already spent time on the injured list in 2023 with a hip strain. There are a whole lot of massive parts to his 6-foot-7 frame, and the pounding of playing every day seems to add up faster.

As a result, the 2022 season when Judge became the AL home run king while smacking 62 homers was one of just two in his career when he's played 150-plus contests. Judge has appeared in as few as 112 games (2018) and 102 (2019).

And now there's a real chance he's destined for an absence again, and potentially a long one.

Judge made a spectacular catch on Saturday night. The New York Yankees outfielder showed that he's more than just a slugger while robbing Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter J.D Martinez of an extra-base hit. But he crashed so hard into the fence that it broke open, and a toe injury kept him out of Sunday's series finale. The Yankees were off on Monday, but Judge is out of the lineup again on Tuesday.

Judge was in pain on Sunday morning, according to Bob Klapisch of NJ.com, who noted that further tests will be conducted. The worst-case scenario is a broken toe, which Judge didn't rule out when speaking on Saturday night. That would require four-to-six weeks of healing time, also per Klapisch, while a more mild bruise would put him on the shelf for two-to-three weeks.

Even a short absence would significantly shake up the MLB home run leader odds, as Judge is both hot on Alonso's tail and he's clearly cemented as home run royalty after two 50-plus dinger seasons. Alvarez is well-positioned to take advantage at a mouth-watering price.

Check out our MLB MVP odds.

Air Yordan is ready for liftoff

Sure, there's the missed-time concern, but look at it from another angle: Alvarez needed only 135 games to hit 37 homers in 2022. Judge's record-setting year pops out, but the previous season he hit 39 homers over 148 games.

Alonso, meanwhile, has remained the picture of health for some time, appearing in 152 games and 160 over the past two seasons. He doesn't come with as much injury worries then, but that luck could run dry eventually with the toll of being an everyday player adding up.

All the while, Alvarez is lurking. He's hit a home run during 6.9% of his plate appearances in 2023, which is right in line with career norms. The lefty isn't selling out for power either while walking 13.3% of the time. And Alvarez ranks third in MLB in both slugging (.582) and OPS (.973), and still an impressive 12th in on-base percentage (.391). 

Alvarez has put up those dazzling numbers because he's a human missile maker. His average exit velocity has ranked in the top 6% of the league during four of his five seasons, according to Baseball Savant. That includes 2023 so far at 93.3 mph. Even better, his expected slugging (.600) and hard-hit percentage (55.6) sit among the top 3%.

There's also the schedule factor for Alvarez. The Astros are currently in Toronto for a four-game series against the Blue Jays and their ninth-ranked pitching staff in ERA. Then they take on the Cleveland Guardians' eight-ranked unit on the road. But there will be appealing matchups for much of June beyond that point, with the Washington Nationals (24th), Cincinnati Reds (27th), New York Mets (22nd), Los Angeles Dodgers (20th), and St. Louis Cardinals (16th) teed up.

There's a clear runway ahead for Alvarez in more ways than one, and his price could start to shorten across the board fast.

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