Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
After a low scoring series opener last night, look for a repeat performance between the teams on Wednesday when Josh Collmenter and the Arizona Diamondbacks (59-85, 30-42 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Ryan Vogelsong and the San Francisco Giants (79-65, 39-33 home) in the second game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 10:15 ET.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -119.
Getting Closer Division Title
We were quite pleased with the 5-1 win by San Francisco on Tuesday as that enabled us to cash our ticket on the ‘under’. And with the Los Angeles Dodgers losing at home to San Diego last night, it enabled the second place Giants to pull within 2½ games of the first place Dodgers in the National League West with the two teams getting set for a huge three-game series here at AT&T Park this weekend.
The Diamondbacks unfortunately do not have much to look forward to as they remain just one-half game ahead of the Colorado Rockies for the worst MLB picks in the National League with their 59-85 record. Arizona has been the worst home team in the majors all season (29-43), but at least the Snakes had been competitive on the road until recently. Unfortunately, they have now tailed off away from home also at 30-42.
Home Sweet Home
Vogelsong does not have eye-popping numbers this year at only 8-10 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP overall, but he has proven that he knows how to take advantage of the vast dimensions of AT&T Park and facing a struggling Arizona offense without Paul Goldschmidt is also a nice benefit for him.
You see, while Vogelsong may by just 3-6 at home, he has a nice 3.17 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in this stadium, and because he is able to pound the strike zone without much fear of allowing home runs, he has a sparkling ratio of 77 strikeouts vs. 16 walks in San Francisco with only two home runs allowed, compared to 15 home runs allowed on the road.
Vogelsong also pitched well the last time he faced the Diamondbacks with an unfortunate loss to show for it right here at AT&T Park as he allowed only two runs on six hits in 6.1 innings without issuing a single walk, but received literally no run support in a 2-0 defeat.
Collmenter in Raging Form
And this could be another case of Vogelsong not getting support as Collmenter is currently on one of the insane runs that he goes on every now and then. Collmenter has allowed a total of two runs on 11 hits in 21.2 innings over his last three starts with 16 strikeouts vs. just two walks, translating to a microscopic 0.83 ERA and 0.60 WHIP over those outings. Most recently he held the Padres to one run and five hits in seven innings in San Diego last Wednesday.
Collmenter pitched reasonable well in his only start vs. the Giants this year, which again came in San Francisco, as he allowed just one run and four hits. However, four walks helped run up his pitch count and he was pulled after five innings and 109 pitches. That still marked the third time in five career starts vs. the Giants that Collmenter has allowed two runs or less though.
Going ‘under’ at AT&T Park
And the Giants have been going ‘under’ with seeming regularity at their spacious AT&T Park home as of late as it is now 7-2 in their last nine home games. It should come as no surprise that the entire San Francisco pitching staff has a 3.21 ERA in this stadium this year, but it is also not surprising that the offense has managed just 3.90 runs per game here.
Do not expect much to change as there teams play yet another ‘under’ in San Francisco on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Giants ‘under’ 7 (-119)