Yankees vs. Tigers to Go 'Under' the Total in Game 2

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 27, 2014 10:25 AM GMT

The Yankees face the Tigers in a game that has significant American League playoff implications. Our MLB betting guru breaks down this pivotal game, and has concluded his article with a MLB free pick on the total.

Playoff Posturing on the Line at Comerica
The Tigers will host the Yankees tonight at Comerica Park in Detroit with the first pitch coming at 7:05 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Tigers are a -170 money line home favorite and the posted total is 7.5. The Tigers are -1.5 (+145) and the Yankees are +1.5 (-60) on the run-line. This will be the 2nd of a 3-game series between these teams that concludes on Thursday with a matinee affair at 1:05 PM ET.

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A Price to Pay
As expected, a game in which southpaw David Price takes the mound, finds bettors having to lay a heavy price on the money line in order to wager on the Tigers. In his last 2-starts, the Tigers hurler has been virtually untouchable, allowing just 1 earned run, on 4-hits, in 16.0 innings of work. His last outing was a frustrating one for Tigers fans. In that game, Price allowed just 1-hit, and walked none in 8.0 innings, during a 1-0 loss at Tampa Bay. Price has an extensive history of facing the Yankees, with all but one of those starts coming as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s gone 3-0 against the money in his last 3 versus the Bronx Bombers this season, with a 2.38 ERA, and a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

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The Money is Greene on the Road
The Yankees Shane Greene has been extremely impressive since being called up from the Yankees AAA affiliate Scranton Wiles-Barrie. Since earning the promotion, he’s gone 6-2 against the money, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. Those 4-starts have seen Greene post a stellar 2.62 ERA and compile a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Greene faced the Tigers on August 7th at Yankee Stadium, and allowed no earned runs in 8.0 innings of work during a 1-0 Yankees win. Greene has seen just 1 of his 8-starts in 2014 go over the total.

 

Final Analysis
Both of these teams are battling for their playoff lives. The Yankees have won 5 of their last 6-games, and are a respectable 35-31 on the road. The Tigers bats were coming alive once again, averaging 6.4 runs, and hitting .298 as a team over their last 7-games. I hate laying this much juice at any time, but especially against a team that’s currently playing well. I’d also have a difficult time betting against David Price after how he’s looked in his recent 2-starts, and with a team behind him who’s heating up offensively. I just have a sneaky suspicion this one will develop into an old fashioned pitching duel. I’ll have a very small lean on this game to be a low scoring affair.

Free MLB Pick: Yankees/Tigers to go under the total of 7.5 at Bet365