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Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Picks and Odds Analysis

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Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Picks and Odds Analysis
Tanner Houck #89 of the Boston Red Sox pitches. Kathryn Riley/Getty Images/AFP

Same song, fourth verse for one of the game’s top rivalries as the New York Yankees open a long weekend series at the Boston Red Sox on Thursday’s baseball betting card.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Thursday, July 27, 2021 – 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

New York and Boston have only been away from each other for a few days, and the fourth series of the season between the two sets up to be the most critical series for either team up to this point. The Yankees arrive at Fenway Park having won four in a row, their longest win streak since taking 6-straight back in May. The Red Sox just took two in Buffalo from the Blue Jays, and lead Tampa Bay by a single game in the AL East with New York seven behind.

Aaron Boone has been dragging his feet on pitching plans for a week now, and the Yankee skipper did it again to prevent this matchup from making the overnight boards at the best online betting sites. Jordan Montgomery (3-5, 4.18) was Boone’s eventual choice, with rookie Tanner Houck (0-2, 3.38) on for Boston.

Montgomery Looks to Snap Personal 4-Game Skid

New York wrapped up a mini-sweep of the Phillies with a 6-5, 10-inning win on Wednesday in the Bronx. The Yankees are still without Aaron Judge and several others due to virus protocol, and it will be interesting – as always – to see how they approach the trading deadline.

Montgomery only factored into four of his first 14 starts, unable to stick around long enough to get a decision. He’d just as soon not to have factored into the decisions his last four times out, all four assignments turning into losses for both him and the Yankees. At least Montgomery has been consistent over that stretch, allowing three earned runs each time while chucking a combined 23 IP (4.69 ERA).

Two of the setbacks in the skid came to the Red Sox, who were small favorites in the MLB betting odds in those contests. New York’s lineup bears at least part of the blame having supported Montgomery with just two runs total in those matchups. The three runs Montgomery allowed at Fenway Park on June 26 came home on a two sac flies – one a foul pop to first – and an infield single. He’s still looking for his first dubya in Boston.

Jordan Montgomery #47 of the New York Yankees pitches. Abbie Parr/Getty Images/AFP

Hernandez Does Big Papi Impersonation in Buffalo

Boston bats awoke in Buffalo against the Blue Jays, scoring 20 runs in the two games with a third contest rained out. Kiké Hernandez ignited the Red Sox offense from the top of the order in the series, pounding Toronto pitchers for three home runs and two doubles while reaching base twice more via free passes.

Recalled from Triple-A Worcester as the Red Sox came out of the All-Star break, Houck will be making his third start of the season, and first since April 18. The former 1st-round pick out of the University of Missouri in 2017, Houck lost that outing against the White Sox in a 7-inning doubleheader as a small favorite at Bookmaker against Chicago’s Dallas Keuchel.

Houck earned his first major league save when he worked the final three innings against the Yankees last Friday. The Illinois native put up zeroes across those frames while striking out three. His lone career start against the Yankees came last September in the final game of 2020 between the rivals, and Houck tossed six innings while allowing one run to get the win. It was Boston’s only win over New York in 2020.

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Season Series Notes, Beantown Forecast & A Free Pick

A sweep in front of the home fans this weekend would guarantee Boston its first season series win over New York since 2018. The Red Sox won the first seven meetings before dropping the final two at Yankee Stadium last weekend. When Boston swept three at Fenway Park in late-June, totals were in the 9½-10½ range and two of the games fell short. Overall, totals are 3-5-1 O/U/P between the two in 2021.

Plenty of clouds are in Boston’s forecast, but no rain. Most of the game will be played in the low-70s with a light southwest breeze (out to center). The Red Sox should emerge as small favorites in the -115 to -120 range once the numbers come out, along with a total in the 9½-10 range. My free MLB pick will be on the final score falling short of the mark.

Free MLB Pick: Under 10 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 10 (-113)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.