Yankees vs. Rays MLB Picks: Severino & Archer to Dominate, Go Under

Charles Stark

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 11:14 AM GMT

For Wednesday's MLB pick under the total play of the day I'm going to back the matchup between the Yankees & Rays. This is a showdown of two good pitchers in line for solid outings. 

MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with the total for this game at seven which might seem a little bit low for an American League game. What we have though is a game with two very good right-handed starters on the mound which should keep the run total down for both teams. You can still get a pretty good price on the MLB  odds market on the under at 5Dimes -105.

 

New York Yankees
Luis Severino takes the mound for the Yankees and comes in with a 3.35 ERA, 1.35 whip, 38 strikeouts, and a 3-3 record. The 21-year-old rookie has been sharp in his major league debut and on the road has allowed only five total earned runs in three games. What I really like about him on the mound today is twofold, first he pitched well against Tampa Bay two weeks ago in New York allowing just one earned run in six innings, and second he is coming off a really bad outing against Toronto allowing six earned runs in two innings giving up two home runs. This puts him in what I consider a really good bounce back spot.

New York ranks second in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.87, second in OPS at .751, and 14th in batting average hitting .253 as a team. Although their batting average stays about the same whether they're playing in New York are on the road their OPS dropped just a little bit. Surprisingly they average about the same runs whether they are at home are on the road. Yesterday they only managed five hits and three runs, and it won't get easier for them today against Tampa Bay ace Chris Archer.

 

Tampa Bay
Chris Archer gets the start with a 2.95 ERA, 1.06 whip, 236 strikeouts, and a 12-11 record. At home he has been solid with a 3.18 ERA and batters hitting only .212 against him. He should be fired up to face the Yankees who just beat him two weeks ago in New York when he allowed four earned runs off of six hits in six innings, two of those hits though the home runs. On the year he has been solid against the Yankees allowing only six earned runs total in three outings.

Tampa Bay ranks 28th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.83, 22nd in OPS at .711, and 24th in batting average hitting .249 as a team. They are one of the more interesting teams offensively in the major leagues because they average better numbers statistically on the road than at home. Yesterday, they really swung the bats producing 13 hits and six runs. Don't look for them to continue that momentum today though against Severino.

 

Final Analysis
Every game counts right now and this should be one of the more interesting matchups of the day. I like both of these pitchers to come out with two quality starts, go deep into the game, and get us under the total. For one of my MLB picks I'm going to take under the total of seven when these two meet and Tampa Bay.

MLB Pick: Yankees & Rays UNDER 7 (-110) at Pinnacle