The Yankees got the final out and escaped with a 6-3 victory against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night. How will that late bit of drama affect Wednesday night’s MLB betting matchup?
The New York Yankees Can Win Because…
NY could deserve MLB picks as they are the far better pitching team & they have the edge in the matchup between the starting pitchers in this game.
First of all, let’s look at the starters. C.C. Sabathia has a 5.40 ERA, but Toronto starter Mark Buehrle has a 6.75 ERA. Buehrle has been tagged left and right this season, and what’s more is that he was absolutely horrible against the Yankees last season. He posted a 6.83 ERA, giving up 22 runs, 21 earned, in 27 2/3 innings. Buehrle surrendered 38 hits and was simply shelled by the Pinstripes. As poor as Sabathia’s been this season, Buehrle’s clearly been worse in 2015.
The situation beyond the starters is what should give New York even more optimism. The Yankees have the third-best team ERA in the American League, at 3.17. Toronto’s pitching staff has the next-to-worst ERA in the American League, placing 14th out of 15 teams with a 4.97 ERA. The big difference is that the Yankees’ bullpen has been a lot better than Toronto’s pen, even with New York conceding three bullpen runs to Toronto on Tuesday. Even with that stumble, the Yankees lead the league in saves with 12. Toronto has just six saves, by comparison. The Yankees have the hottest closer in the American League with Andrew Miller, who has 11 saves. He is quickly making New York forget about Mariano Rivera and (last year) David Robertson. These are big advantages for the Yankees to take into this game. When you also realize that Alex Rodriguez and Mark Texeira drove in two runs apiece on Tuesday, their confidence should flow into this game, especially since they’re so used to facing Buehrle, a longtime veteran of the American League dating back to his days with the Chicago White Sox.
The Toronto Blue Jays Can Win Because…
They are going to feast on C.C. Sabathia. As long as the Jays get a tolerable outing from Buehrle, something like three runs allowed in five innings, which will be good enough in all likelihood. As you saw above, Sabathia has an ERA of 5.40. In his first start against Toronto this season, Sabathia gave up five runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays got a lot of good swings against him, and since it’s public knowledge that Sabathia has lost a lot on his fastball, Toronto hitters can look for the off-speed stuff and wait to get a fastball over the middle of the plate, something they can drive. They should be able to score well against the Yankees, and that’s a convincing reason to pick the Jays here.
Baseball Betting Outlook
The game could be a total hitter’s paradise, something like 9-7, so avoid the side in this one. We will focus our attention on the 'over/under' MLB Odds for total runs.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 at Pinnacle