Yankees A Valuable Underdog MLB Pick vs. Orioles At Camden Yards

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 3:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 3, 2016 3:56 PM UTC

Things are not always as they seem and we feel that is the case where anomalous starts could be giving the Yankees MLB betting value visiting the Orioles.


MLB Record: 14-15-1, +1.04

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
This is a game where we are not convinced the starts the two starting pitchers have had are the real deal, so we are looking for some correction that give hidden value to the underdogs Tuesday night when the under-achieving Luis Severino and the New York Yankees (8-15, 3-8 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander and over-achieving Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (14-10, 9-3 home) at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET on MASN. The posted money line at Bovada has New York as a road underdog for this contest at current MLB odds of +115.


Slumping Yankees
The Yankees are in unfamiliar territory for such a proud franchise, which is last place in the American League East at 8-15 after getting swept in a three-game series by the Red Sox in Boston over the weekend, extending the New York losing streak to five games since opening up this road trip with a win over the Texas Rangers in Arlington. The Yankees trail the hated Red Sox, who have now moved into first place, by six games.

The Orioles have led the division for most of this early season, but they dropped to second place one-half game behind Boston by being the losing MLB picks in the last two games to the Chicago White Sox over the weekend after winning the first two games of that four-game set. Baltimore had a great start to the year at 7-0, but the Orioles actually have a losing 7-10 record since then.


Severino Not Really This Bad…
To say that Severino has not fulfilled the vast potential he displayed as a rookie last year so far this season would be an understatement, as he dropped to 0-3 with a bloated 6.86 ERA and 1.78 WHIP after getting lit up for six earned runs on seven hits plus two walks in just three innings by Texas last Tuesday. What made that start more discouraging was that he had appeared to turn things around by allowing two runs in six innings vs. Oakland his prior start.

Nonetheless, Severino has made just four starts so far after all so we simply think it is too soon to jump ship on the now 22-year-old that broke into the majors by going 5-3 with a nice 2.89 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 62.1 innings over 11 starts last season. After all, not all the news this year is gloom and doom as Severino actually has a good 3.63 FIP and a better 3.16 xFIP, as he has been extremely unlucky in allowing a ridiculously unrealistic .417 BABIP!

Severino’s mainstream numbers should converge toward the FIP and xFIP once the BABIP stabilizes, and remember that he did pitch well in his only start vs. the Orioles last season allowing three runs on only five hits in seven innings with six strikeouts and not a single walk.

…And Tillman Not Really this Good
Then we have the opposite extreme with Tillman, who is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts with the only outlier being a six-run shelling absorbed at Texas while allowing nine hits in 5.1 innings on April 14th. Furthermore, his last start may have been his best one yet as Tillman tossed 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out nine Tampa Bay Rays last Wednesday.

However, just as we feel that Severino is better than his mainstream statistics, we also feel that Tillman is not this good. Tillman has a history of over-performing in relation to his peripheral stats, as he did it while going 16-7 despite a 4.42 FIP in 2013 and then by going 13-6 with a 4.01 FIP and 4.20 xFIP in 2014. Then, last year was the first time in a while that Tillman’s mainstream stats and peripherals lined up, and the end result was an 11-11 record and 4.99 ERA.

We feel that was closer to the true Tillman, but now here we go again this year as he has posted the fine aforementioned stats while simultaneously owning just a 4.07 xFIP and getting helped by allowing a fairly low .277 BABIP. We feel the real Tillman will resurface soon and we want to take advantage of him while he is probably overvalued during this short-term.


Offenses Trending in Opposite Directions
Finally, the Yankees did score seven runs in an 8-7 loss to the Red Sox on Sunday, and they are 4-1 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Meanwhile the Orioles scored one lone run in a 7-1 loss to the White Sox Sunday, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.

Since we see correcting efforts from both pitchers in this spot, look for both offenses to continue in the direction that each started going in last game, giving the New York Yankees underdog value visiting the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday.

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Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees +114
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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