The New York Yankees head to Fenway to face the rival Boston Red Sox as the two AL East teams open a three-game series Friday. Here's our Yankees-Red Sox picks.
The Yankees have been the hottest team in baseball for almost the entirety of the 2022 season. Suddenly, they've hit a slump. They're 2-8 over their last 10 games in what's been the worst stretch of the season for them.
Coming into Fenway 2-0-1 in series versus the Red Sox this year, now seems to be the time for the Yankees to bounce back. While the Red Sox did notch the win versus another division rival in the Baltimore Orioles last night, they still sit at the bottom of the AL East standings, 16.5 games back from first, plagued by injuries, fielding blunders, and an unreliable bullpen.
Domingo German will make his fifth start of the season and first at Fenway this year, while Nathan Eovaldi hopes to keep this Yankees offense quiet.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Game Info
Date/Time: Friday, Aug. 12, 7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Weather: 80 degrees, 0% chance of rain, wind 6 mph
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds Analysis
The Yankees are the moneyline favorites in this game, ranging from -115 at DraftKings to -130 at BetMGM.
The total is set at nine at DraftKings and FanDuel and 9.5 at BetMGM.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Projected Pitchers
Domingo Germán (1-2, 5.09 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
German didn't make his season debut until July 21 due to injury. It hasn't been the hottest of starts for German as he continues to try and find his footing. In his first game of the season, he pitched just three innings and posted an abysmal 15.00 ERA. Since then, he's improved bit by bit every start.
German earned his first win Aug. 1 against the Seattle Mariners, throwing five innings, allowing six hits, two earned runs, and one home run with one strikeout. Though he took the loss in his most recent start versus the St. Louis Cardinals, it was his best game yet. He threw five innings allowing just four hits, one earned run, and no walks while striking out three.
While he continues to get better with each start, Germán still has not gone more than five innings in a game.
Eovaldi's season has been rather up and down for the Red Sox. He's far and away their most consistent starting pitcher, but looking at his numbers, that doesn't exactly bode well for Boston.
He's struggled over his last seven games since returning from the IL on July 15. He’s 3-1 in his last seven starts, but with a 4.95 ERA, allowing 44 hits with 20 earned runs over 36 1.3 innings pitched.
Eovaldi ranks 21st in the AL in runs with 51 and he doesn't exactly have the home-field advantage in this matchup. Eovaldi's been worse at Fenway than on the road this season, posting a 6.81 ERA at home.
Eovaldi's a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact which also does not bode well going up against a Yankees lineup filled with hard hitters from top to bottom.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Picks
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Yankees vs. Red Sox ML Pick
Due to their recent slump, this is probably the most value you'll get out of the Yankees moneyline this season. Despite being 2-8 in their last 10, a struggling Eovaldi on top of an inconsistent Red Sox bullpen could make for a slugfest.
While German's yet to find his groove, he at least has the Yankees bullpen to fall back on. The Yankees have the second-best bullpen in the league with a 2.98 ERA, second only to the Houston Astros. The Red Sox are at the bottom of the rankings with the fifth worst mark in MLB at 4.45. So even if Eovaldi is able to limit damage in his start, these Yankees bats can easily blow it open once they get to Boston's pen.
Yankees vs. Red Sox O/U Pick
Over 9 (-115)
These two teams love the Over when playing one another and given the pitching matchup at hand, I don't see that changing here.
Combine Eovaldi's home ERA of 6.81 and hard-hit percentage of 46%, per BaseballSavant, with German's slow return and two teams that have hit the Over in the last seven meetings and it makes for a definite Over bet.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Prop Pick
Arroyo Over 0.5 RBIs (+180)
It hasn't been all bad for the Red Sox this year. Since returning from the IL, Christian Arroyo's been Boston's hottest hitter.
He's batting .314 at home with three home runs and seven RBIs at Fenway. Over his last five games, he's recorded eight hits and three RBIs. He's hit the Over in hits in 14 of his last 16 games.
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Yankees-Red Sox picks from 8/12/2022 at 01:42 p.m. ET