Yankees-Indians Take Foot Off The Gas in ALDS Game 3

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, October 8, 2017 12:35 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 8, 2017 12:35 PM UTC

With the Indians looking to sweep the Yankees, our MLB handicapper assesses all options of wagering on this game and dials in the value as he makes his Sunday MLB Pick of the Day.

Game 3: Yankees-Indians

The Cleveland Indians go for the sweep of the Yankees in Game 3 of their American League Division series with the game being played in New York on Sunday afternoon. While most of us will be watching NFL football, there should be some wagering value we can find with this game and pitching matchup. The lines have already started moving, with the Indians taking early money and moving the moneyline to -116 from the opening line of -108 at BookMaker. The total opened at 8, but can now be found at 8 and 8.5 runs depending on where you look.

For the Indians we have Carlos Carrasco starting, and he has put in his best season of his career this year. Most importantly, his walk rate is the lowest it has ever been at 2.07 BB/9, and his K/9 rate is nearly the best it has been at 10.17 K/9. This all leads to a K-BB% of 22.6%, which ranks Carrasco 6th in all of baseball this season. His overall WHIP is 8th in the MLB at 1.10 and his K/BB ratio of 4.91 is 5th. You don’t get rankings like that without consistency, and Carrasco has it in spades. He allows just a .202 road BAA against lefties and a .214 BAA against right-handers on the year. There isn’t a lot of holes to be taken advantage of with his repertoire.

With all of that said, Carrasco was a tough-luck loser against the Yankees in August as he gave up 5 earned runs on six hits. In that game the Yankees had the benefit of a .353 BABIP and Carrasco put up a 2.10 FIP.

The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who is ranked in elite status in many aspects yet only has a 13-12 record on the year and a 4.34 FIP. He’s got a significant dinger problem, especially in the daytime, and has a 21.2% HR/FB rate on the season. Tanaka excels at home though, and over 95 innings pitched this year has put up a 3.45 FIP, 10.61 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, .224 BAA, and .101 WHIP – all elite numbers.

An interesting note about Tanaka is that he has faced the Indians three times in a row with all of those games going against Carrasco. Today’s game will be his fourth. He has won his last two matchups in this situation with a split on the total. However, no game was played this year. With Carrasco being an elite pitcher and Tanaka’s great home split I don’t think the value is in picking a side on this game. Instead, I will trust both pitchers to put in a good performance and for the Under of 8.5 to cash as my Sunday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: UNDER 8.5 RUNS
Best Line Available is 5Dimes (-107)

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2017 MLB Record, 217-194-11, +8.34 units

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