Each day during the MLB Playoffs, LT Profits seek out a total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Playoff Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
Much to the delight of baseball fans everywhere the 2014 World Series has gone to a Game 7 Wednesday night, and we think fans will be treated to a relatively high scoring game when Tim Hudson the San Francisco Giants (99-79, 48-41 away) again pay a visit to fellow right-hander Jeremy Guthrie and the Kansas City Royals (100-76, 48-40 home) at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.
Forced Game 7 in Blowout Fashion
Identically to the last time the Royals were in the playoffs 29 years ago when they were then down 3-2 to the St. Louis Cardinals returning home to Kansas City, the Royals forced a Game 7 again this year and did so in emphatic fashion with 10-0 blowout on Tuesday as Yordano Ventura bested Jake Peavy. The Royals did then go on to win Game 7 of that 1985 World Series, so is a similar fate awaiting then here?
Scalpers have had a field day on the MLB odds in this series with the odds to win the series varying so much from game to game. We are not in that scalper category as we had a play on Kansas City -105 before the series began, although we could not resist and did add another play on the Royals +215 prior to last night’s contest. We are letting those plays ride here as we are doing nothing else with the side, but we do like the total here at this relatively low number.
First World Series for Hudson
Hudson first came into the Major League in 1999 with the Oakland Athletics, but he did not make his first World Series appearance until Game 3 of this series, where he was only decent while allowing three earned runs on four hits plus one walk in 5.2 innings with just two strikeouts. He took the 3-2 loss in that contest back in the much friendlier confines of San Francisco, but he may not be as fortunate here in a stadium that plays much more fairly.
Tim certainly appears to be in the twilight of his career as he went only 9-13 in this, his first season with the Giants, and now at the age of 39 this marked his second straight season with single-digit wins after previously posting double-digit win totals every year of his career except for his injury-shortened 2009 season.
And Hudson has not exactly been stellar during these playoffs either as he allowed four earned runs in 6.1 innings vs. the St. Louis Cardinals in his previous start in the NLCS after being staked to a 4-0 lead after one inning. And even the San Francisco bullpen showed some signs of wearing down last night despite having two days off due to Madison Bumgarner’s Complete Game on Sunday, and that pen may be called on early again tonight.
Is Guthrie Up for Challenge?
Now, we listed Guthrie as one of the most overrated starting pitchers in baseball prior to this season after he won a career high 15 games last season while severely out-pitching his poor sabremetric numbers, leading us to believe that regression was inevitable in 2014. And we were not totally wrong, as while Guthrie finished the regular season with a better record than we expected at 13-11, he did finish with just a 4.13 ERA, .273 batting average allowed and 4.32 FIP.
Admittedly though, Guthrie has been pitching perhaps his best baseball of the year at the best possible time as he has allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts including the regular season after surrendering two runs on four hits in five innings in Game 3 vs. Hudson. Still, we are not so sure that joyride will continue here where he can no longer take advantage of San Francisco’s dimensions.
And besides, if the hot Kansas City bats jump on Hudson early as we expect, Guthrie may not even need to allow many runs to put this game ‘over’.
Every Game at Kauffman Went ‘over’
Finally, do not forget that all three games played here in Kansas City have gone ‘over’ in this series with those three contests averaging a total of 9.0 runs. That makes sense as Kauffman Stadium is a much more neutral stadium than pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco, and yet there has not been much variance in the posted totals throughout this series regardless of the venues.
And now in the final MLB game of the season, look for these clubs to once again do enough to go ‘over’ this manageable total in World Series Game 7 from Kansas City on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Giants, Royals ‘over’ 7 (-110)