With Santana On The Mound, The Twins Are Automatic Live Dogs vs. Blue Jays

Ervin Santana

Saturday, August 27, 2016 2:48 PM GMT

The Blue Jays captured the first of a three-game set from the shame-spiraling Minnesota Twins. Let's peruse the MLB odds in this afternoon's middle game between the clubs and cash another ticket.

Swinger’s MLB Record: 66-42, +21.89 units
There are times when you review the entire slate of games on tap for that evening's gambling festivities and think, 'meh'. Certainly, the pro in us advises a pass, take the night off, there'll be other nights with plenty of action to be had. But we don't always listen to that inner voice with the sound, logical advice. Nope, we like to gamble and we love the action. Thus, if you can't remove yourself entirely then at least cut your unit size down dramatically on those nights when nothing strikes your fancy except the action itself.

And so it has been over the past several days that I have stayed away from baseball and instead focused my attention on preseason football. I can often sense a bad run and after I included the Nationals in my MLB picks on Wednesday night over the Orioles, I woke up Thursday morning only to learn that Baltimore had outslugged Washington 10-8 the night before. When you lose an MLB odds favorite of -153 in a game where you would have bet more than one unit had our system allowed it (it does not, as all the bets this season in MLB are for one unit and shall remain that way until the end of the regular season) then it's time to step away...at least for a few days. But here we are back again and ready to rumble. Let's get on this matinee in Toronto between the Blue Jays and the Twins and cash a ticket!

 

Twins Send Santana to the Hill
The Minnesota Twins are having an ugly season with only 49 notches in the win column and residing in the cellar of the AL Central. The only team in the entire league with a worse record is the Atlanta Braves, which provides little solace for a fan base that was hoping the club would build upon a respectable 2015 campaign. Unfortunately for them, even the mere whiff of a postseason slot is out of the question as the team has been effectively playing out the string for a while now.

But even by the Twins' subterranean standards this season their recent spate of futility is somewhat surprising, having lost eight consecutive games and hoping to avoid No. 9 with the help of veteran hurler Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.33, 1.19). The Dominican native has been outstanding over the second half of the season and has now held opponents to two or less earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts, which has seen his ERA plummet from 5.10 to 3.33 this season. At age 33 he currently owns the lowest ERA of his career with the exception of his 3.24 ERA at the end of the 2013 season when he was a member of the Kansas City Royals.

 

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Betting Analysis
We both know the Toronto Blue Jays are the better team. They have an explosive lineup and have a pretty good pitcher on the mound for them this afternoon in Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.47, 1.28) who looked sharp in his last outing against the Indians when he held the Tribe to one run on seven hits over seven-plus innings of work. That solid effort proved to be a fruitless endeavor as the Jays fell 3-2 to Cleveland.

But let's look at the flipside of this equation, Ervin Santana has been an absolute beast as evidenced by his 1.72 ERA over his last 10 starts. The Twins may be in the midst of an eight-game losing streak but they have averaged close to six runs per game over their last three contests which include their 15-8 loss last night at the hands of the hard-hitting Blue Jays.

If you give me Toronto at -150 or less I'll take them but the public is sending it on the chalky Jays and the line has ballooned to -230 at many offshore sportsbooks. That is simply too high a line when factoring in Santana's stellar run of pitching while also considering that the Twins' bats look to be heating up. Though Toronto's Marcus Stroman has been on a decent run himself let's not forget that he has a weighty 4.73 ERA at home this season. I am going to get a healthy return on my Minnesota investment but as the old saying goes, there is no value in losing. We don't think we will as the Twins are poised to cash as a live road pup here.

 

Free MLB Pick: Twins +200 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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