With Nelson On The Mound Back Brewers When They Face Rockies Tonight

Jimmy Nelson

Charles Stark

Monday, August 22, 2016 2:15 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 22, 2016 2:15 PM UTC

Rockies are a much different offensive team on the road for obvious reasons. Today they travel to take on a Milwaukee team and we seek the best MLB pick. Will Rockies keep their slim playoff hopes alive or will Brewers find a way to win one at home?

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers
Odds makers have come out making this game at around a pick at most places with small juice on both sides across the board. For my MLB pick in this matchup I'm going to back the Milwaukee Brewers with MLB odds at -104. Although I am not a fan of backing teams when they are struggling this is a good spot for Milwaukee to get a win for the home fans.


Colorado Rockies
Chad Bettis gets the start for Colorado and comes in with a 5.29 ERA and 1.49 whip while the Rockies have won eight out of the last 10 times he has taken the mound. On that statistic alone you would think this would be a great spot to go ahead and back Colorado but Bettis has shown the propensity to give up runs in bunches. What should have Colorado backers concerned is the fact that his numbers don't really improve on the road in which they should being a Colorado pitcher. While traveling this season Bettis posts of 5.20 ERA going 5-4 while batters are hitting .275 against him. 

Those are not great numbers and it seems he has been more fortunate than good considering his run support ranks fourth in the major leagues as Colorado averages over six runs offensively when he takes the mound. At the plate Colorado naturally has huge disparities from hitting at home to on the road. While they rank in the top part of league in most offensive categories those all go down considerably when they travel as they average some pretty pedestrian numbers. The Rockies go from averaging 6.2 runs per game at home to just 4.33 on the road and their batting average drops considerably from .300 to just .245. They will most likely struggle today against the Milwaukee pitcher who has been great at home this season.


Milwaukee Brewers
Jimmy Nelson starts for the Brewers with a 4.31 ERA and 1.49 whip overall but just a 2.79 ERA in Milwaukee. Nelson is the guts of this pick to back the home team as he has been stellar there despite his 4-6 record pitching in Milwaukee. Teams are hitting just .240 against him at home and unlike Bettis, he has been on the other end of the fortunate scale ranking outside of the top 70 pitchers in run support. He is coming off of a rough stretch in which he has gotten knocked around quite a bit losing his last six starts in a row. 

However, he is a solid major league pitcher and I expect for him to come in and get a quality start today. Offensively Milwaukee has not been good this season and rank in the bottom part of the league in most categories. However, statistically their home numbers are better than Colorado's road numbers and they go from hitting .240 on the road to .253 at home and averaging 4.39 runs compared to 3.75 when they travel. As far as overall statistics by backing Milwaukee today you're backing the better starter and the better team offensively in this particular situation.


Free MLB Pick: Brewers -104 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 
July record: 13-9
August record: 8-9

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