Our resident sports handicapping professional has gone 12-4 at SBR with his MLB picks since Monday. He provides us with an insightful betting preview article on the game between the Padres and Dodgers on Saturday which culminates with a money line selection.
Saturday Night NL West Battle at Petco Park
The Padres will host the Dodgers on Saturday at 10:10 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Pinnacle, the Dodgers are a -155 money line favorite, and the posted total is 6.5. This will be the eleventh meeting of the season between these NL West rivals, and Los Angeles has gone 7-3 in the first ten.
The Dodgers will go with right-hander Zack Greinke on the mound tonight. Greinke is 8-4 in his team starts this season with a an excellent 1.92 ERA, and that includes 4-0 on the road with an even better 1.63 ERA. The Dodgers hurler has made three starts versus San Diego this year and was brilliant in those outings, posting a microscopic 0.87 ERA, and 0.82 WHIP. Greinke has gone 8-2 in his career team starts versus San Diego with an outstanding 1.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Nine of those ten starts against the Padres have taken place since 2013. As a matter of fact, Greinke is a superb 28-7 in his team starts since the beginning of last season when facing an NL West opponent.
The Padres Ian Kennedy has endured a very tough start to the 2015 MLB campaign. In 10 starts, Kennedy compiled an awful 6.48 ERA, and has allowed 12 home runs in 50.0 innings pitched. That’s not good news considering he’ll be facing a Dodgers team tonight which has smacked 79 home runs in 61 games this season. Kennedy has gone 0-2 versus the Dodgers in 2015 with a large 8.71 ERA. The Padres right-hander has really struggled in six starts at home, posting a 8.23 ERA, and allowed 9 home runs in just 27 1/3 innings pitched.
MLB Betting System
I already alluded to the fact that the Dodgers have won four games in a row, and that has improved their winning percentage to .590 this season. The Padres have a .492 winning percentage in 2015. The aforementioned data sets up a highly profitable betting angle, and that will be a deciding factor when making my MLB picks on Saturday.
Any money line favorite of -150 or more (Dodgers) which has won 4 of their last five games, and has a winning percentage of .540 to .620, versus an opponent (Padres) with a winning percentage of .460 to .490, resulted in that favorite going 68-17 (80%) since the beginning of the 2011 MLB season. The money line favorite had a +2.2 run per game differential in those 80 contests.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -155 on the money line at Pinnacle.