With Greinke Looking Shaky, Back The Favored Giants Over The Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 3:26 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016 3:26 PM GMT

Our MLB odds expert is looking to finish the month of August on a strong note. In this matchup, he finds a pitcher that can't be trusted even though his career numbers are strong.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

With the San Francisco Giants chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West, the last thing they need is a letdown with the last place Arizona Diamondbacks coming to town on Tuesday night. The Giants currently find themselves just 2 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers, after limping out of the All-Star Break with a weak stretch of games. Arizona, of course, is over 20 games under .500 coming into this matchup. The early odds posted for this game has the San Francisco Giants favored on the money line at -155 at 5Dimes, with the O/U total posted at a very low 6.5 runs across the MLB odds board. The shading on the O/U total is slightly to the Over, with Bovada running -125 juice to take the Over.

Starting for the San Francisco Giants is Johnny Cueto, who has had a drop in velocity this year… to fantastic results! On the season, Cueto has posted a 14-4 win-loss record, 2.86 ERA, 158/34 K/BB rate, 1.08 WHIP, and .236 batting average allowed. He’s been very tough on right-handers on the year, allowing just a .214 batting average against them, versus a .262 batting average allowed against lefties.

Although the overall season numbers for Cueto are good, he has faded a little in the second half, which coincides with the Giants recent struggles. Cueto has recorded just one winning decision in his last 8 games after the All-Star Break. After posting a 2.47 ERA in the first half of the season, he has posted a domestic 3.91 ERA afterwards with an even more troubling .275 batting average allowed. He does have an excellent career record against the Arizona Diamondbacks, though, as he has posted an 8-2 record and 2.93 ERA over 11 starts against them. Cueto won the last two meetings between the two teams just this year with the last being on July 1st.

 

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Starting for the Diamondbacks in this game is their very expensive free agent from the offseason, Zack Greinke. Greinke missed all of July with a left oblique strain, and his results after coming back into the rotation has been atrocious. In his 20.2 innings pitched in August, Greinke has put up a 7.84 ERA, 22/6 K/BB rate, and .326 batting average allowed. Not good. This is compared to his 3.62 ERA, 91/21 K/BB rate, and .248 batting average allowed before he got hurt. Greinke is walking batters at a much higher rate after his return to action, at an almost double 2.61 BB/9.

With both of these teams having off days on Monday, the bullpens should come into this game relatively rested. In bullpen statistics, the Giants have a clear advantage over Arizona. Actually, most of the league would have an advantage over the Diamondbacks right now as their bullpen is carrying a 5.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the year. The Giants’ bullpen has posted a decent 3.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2016.

I’m limping to the end of the August here, where I’ve posted a near .500 month, so I’m looking to finish strong and end up with a winning monthly record. I see no reason to trust Greinke here coming off of injury, and even if he pitched well, the Diamondback’s bullpen would likely blow the game anyway. I’m following the public line move and backing the Giants at -158 at Heritage for my Tuesday night MLB Pick.

 

2016 YTD MLB: 51-37-4, +11.88 Units
Free MLB Pick: Giants -155
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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