Winning Thursday Run Line Action Worth Adding to Your MLB Picks

Doug Upstone

Thursday, June 25, 2015 3:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 3:25 PM UTC

We have a little smaller baseball card which is not unusual on Thursday's yet there is still ample opportunity to profit from the MLB odds on the run line with your sports picks.

Had no problem this morning assembling three MLB picks versus the betting odds and as a baseball handicapper my confidence is high after a 3-0 number yesterday and 5-1 on the RL the past couple of days. Let's dig in and eat!


Athletics vs. Rangers: Oakland is Dangerous Club
The Athletics might still be eight games south of .500, but the teams they have been knocking off would disagree this is not a good club. Since May 23rd when Oakland had the worst record in baseball at 14-30, they are 19-11 which is the second-best record in the American League in that span, with only Toronto better.

In fact, if you look run differential, the A's are fourth in the AL at +43, which would suggest they record should be 42-32, not 33-41. With how bad their bullpen was the first six weeks, that played a huge role in their 15-32 record in games decided by three runs or less. (6-18 in one run outcomes)

This afternoon they will utilize Sonny Gray (8-3, 1.95 ERA), the AL's ERA leader, who will not be lacking in motivation after allowing five runs in his last outing, his worst start of the season. Gray has no issues pitching at Globe Life Park, where he's won all four of his starts with a 0.29 ERA and executed both of his career shutouts.

Sportsbooks are shading the run line for Oakland and it's easy to tell. Looking at Reds-Pirates & A's-Rangers both games are around -155 money line favorites and the Pirates are a fairly traditional +150 on the RL (-1.5), but Gray and Oakland are down to +110 on the RL, which tells be the action was hot and they lowered it considerably. No matter, with the Green and Gold 12-0 on the RL after two straight games with five or more extra base hits the last three seasons, we will still take the cheaper MLB odds.


Reds vs. Pirates: Cincinnati Playing Pittsburgh Tough
The Reds are not making life easy for Pittsburgh, defeating Gerrit Cole last night 5-2 and dropping Monday's decision 7-6. In the series finale, Anthony DeSclafani (5-5, 3.48) goes for Cincinnati and he's pitched his best baseball on the road with a 2.58 ERA and a .189 batting average allowed in seven starts. His mound foe is a tough customer in A.J. Burnett (6-3, 2.05), who looks to be going out in style in what he has stated as his last season.

After an outstanding stretch of winning baseball, the Pirates offense has cooled to 2.6 runs per game in their past seven tries, while the Reds have perked up to 4.9 RPG compared to 4.1 on the season.

At last peek had the best price on Cincy at -165 on the RL (+1.5) and when team like the Pirates are home favorites with a money line range of -190 to +175, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five games, they are 19-50 on the run line since 2011.


Yankees vs. Astros: Keuchel Gets Houston Back on Winning Track
The Astros are back after a .500 road trip, but managed to lose the final two series to division rivals Seattle and L.A. Waiting for them is the New York Yankees, who were red-faced losing a home series to floundering Philadelphia.

Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.35) is Houston's starter and he's been among the best in majors this season and has done his part in helping his team win 15 of 20 at Juice (Minute Maid) Park. Keuchel will face Yankees lineup which has been percolating at 8.3 RPG in their last seven, but those were at home and they score four times a contest on the road this year.

Houston is +145 on the RL (-1.5) and is 9-3 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. Add in the 'Stros lefty is 12-1 on the RL playing against a team with a winning record, winning by 2.7 RPG the last two seasons and you can understand why I am high on them tonight.

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