Wild Card Race Pulls MLB Odds Close in Pirates-Twins Matchup

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:44 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2015 1:44 PM UTC

When breaking down the baseball betting odds for tonight match between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Minnesota Twins, we note the home vs. away trends for the teams and pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) (-115) at Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) 8:10 ET
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Minnesota Twins for the first of an early week set at Target Field.  The first pitch will be at 8:10 ET.  This is a battle of 2nd place teams, who as hunters, will play with great intensity.  The Twins are in 2nd place in the AL Central, trailing KC by 8 games.  But, they are one of only 5 teams in the American League who are above .500.  As such, they hold down a current Wild Card spot.  The Pittsburgh Pirates, at 57-41, are 6 ½ games behind St. Louis in the NL Central.  But, the Pirates have the 3rd best record in MLB at 57-41 and hold a 2 ½ game lead over San Fran for the 1st Wild Card spot.

After closing the first half of the season with a trio of victories over St. Louis, the Pirates pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Cards.  But a disastrous 6-game road trip to open the 2nd half, in which they went 1-5, put them behind the 8 ball.  A 3-1 home series against Washington improved the Pirates’ recent record to 39-19, best in MLB in that span.  Of greatest concern is the road record which is 22-24.  The performance on the road is most troubling for tonight’s starter, Morton, as well.  Though he has pitched well at PNC Park, he has a 7.81 ERA on the road in 5 starts.  Unfortunately, that coincides with his recent current form which, after a fast start, has seen Morton post a 7.76 ERA in his most recent 6 starts.  With those kinds of numbers, it is tough to trust the Pirates and Morton as a road favorite.

Minnesota and Pelfrey present a totally dichotomous profile. After winning Friday night at home vs. NYY, the Twins had a lost weekend in dropping a pair to the Bronx Bombers.  After their 26-12 surge through May, they have now regressed to 20-24 the last 2 months.  But, their record at home at 32-18 is one of the best in MLB.  Such is the same fortonight’s starter, Pelfrey, who has pitched by far his baseball from this mound.  Minnesota has won 6 of 8 Pelfrey home starts, in which he has a 2.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.      

In a matchup of current Wild Card teams, we have formed our MLB picks favoring the huge home/road dichotomy presented by both the numbers for Minnesota and Pittsburgh, as well as Pelfrey & the Twins.

MLB Picks: Take Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) -103 at BookMaker

comment here