Baseball will likely come back in July with a shortened season that could effect every record in the record books. Here’s a deep dive on what will matter more in the shortened MLB season and what the shortened season means moving forward.
What Matters Most in Shortened Season
We’re likely going to hear an announcement soon on whether or not the MLB will have a season in 2021 or not. It’s likely that at the start of July, we’ll be watching baseball.
In a shortened season, who has the edge? What will stats look like? Let’s assume there’s an 84-game season that starts on July 4.
The league will almost certainly elect to use a designated hitter throughout the season. This won’t affect the American League but it will affect the National League in many ways.
The NL doesn’t spend extra money on a player that can’t play in the field. Thus, the NL has better starting pitching while the AL elects to spend their money on big power bats. If the DH is league-wide, the AL will be at an advantage because they’ll already be prepared with the right roster in place.
Rosters will be expanded this year. If the MLB is anything like the KBO, there will be plenty of injuries throughout the season. An MLB team will likely roster 30 players and 20 players that could be available if needed. Basically, if you’re on the cusp and playing poorly, there’s a solid chance you’ll be swapped out for another player. With a shortened season, there’s no time to waste and if a player is in a slump, they’ll get swapped out quickly. Sportsbooks like 5Dimes will be aware of this as well.
Shortened Season Records
Most records in the MLB in 2021 will not be counted and will have an asterisk next to them. Take Justin Morneau for example. He played 81 games in 2010 and suffered a concussion that would keep him out of play for a little bit. Morneau was hitting .345 before the concussion.
Imagine if the MLB had a
No one has ever hit above .400 in a given season since the great Ted Williams in 1941. But there have been 26 batters who hit .400 in 82 games.
Each of these players saw a minimum of 254 plate appearances
But in the past five years, only Joey Votto has achieved .400 average in 82 games. Jose Altuve had an average of .298 and .284 while
The one thing that scares most is a random player dominating the league for an 82-game stretch. But with the list shared, players who were able to hit near .400 are notable all-stars.
While hitters with average won’t like
Sluggers like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Roger Maris, and Barry Bonds have hit 39-42 homers in an 82-game period.
Giancarlo Stanton hit 38 homers in 2017 in an 82-game span. Brain Dozier had 34 in 2016, Eugenio Suarez had 33 in 2019, Carlos Gonzalez, J.D. Martinez, and Mike Trout each had 32 while Matt Carpenter slugged 31 in a given 82-game stretch.
In the last five years, we’ve only had five players accumulate 80 or more RBI’s in an 82-game stretch. It’ll be interesting to see if one player can bring home 80 batters in a shortened season.
We’ve also had 11 pitchers accumulate an ERA of 1.12 or better in an 82-game season. These pitchers pitched around 100 innings and had to pitch a minimum of 82 to be considered.
In the last five
We’ve also seen nine different pitchers in the last five seasons accumulate 13 or 14 wins in a given 82-game stretch.
Why Pitching Matters The Most
If a team has dominant pitching a team is more likely going to win. The MLB odds usually reflect this. Pitching records are much more attainable compared to batting records.
In an 82-game season, there’s a much greater chance for a pitcher to accumulate 13-14 wins and finish with an ERA of 1.50 or less than it is for a hitter to average .400 and hit 35 or more home runs.
When betting, the first thing any bettor should do for MLB picks
We’ve seen very good hitters get into slumps more then we’ve seen very good pitchers get into slumps.
Pitching matters. Especially if the designated hitter is in play for the NL.