Why Fix It, If It Ain't Broken? Keep Backing Cubs Run Line Against Brewers

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, August 17, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

The Chicago Cubs STEAMROLLED the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday in a doubleheader by scores of 4-0 and 4-1. The latter of those was a run line winner for us, making the recent record of selections on this site 7-3 (70%).  

Milwaukee Brewers (Nelson) vs. Chicago Cubs (Lester) 
We are right back on the Cubs today to continue their momentum with a pitching mismatch that is at least as good as the one from which we profited from last night.

With a record of 52-66, including a recent run of 4-9 and a 3-game losing streak, Milwaukee is quickly fading from relevance.  NO ONE IN MLB HAS FEWER ROAD WINS THAN THE 19-37 ROAD MARK OF MILWAUKEE!  Battered and beaten by the Cubs in a doubleheader yesterday, there is little reason to believe a negative attitude of Milwaukee will get any better in today’s pitching mismatch.

A 24-6 mark in their first 30 games set the tone for a Cubs team, who was virtually anointed the World Series crown by preseason scribes.  But, a rash of injuries and a return to reality resulted in a mid-season 27-29 dip, which allowed the Pirates and Cards to creep within 5 games of their division lead.  As they slowly returned to health and the pitching again began to dominate, the Cubs enter tonight’s fray with a 24-8 record that has seen them go 16-3 recently.  A bullpen meltdown over the weekend saw rival, St. Louis, storm back against the Cubs for a pair of victories on this field.  But, a well-rested bullpen will give the Cubs every advantage to continue their winning ways tonight.  The month of August has seen the Chicago starters be especially dominant.  In 14 recent games, starters are 10-0 with a 1.12 ERA.

Tonight’s starter, Lester, who is 12-4 for the season with a 2.93 ERA has been a major part of that run.  In fact, the Cubs have won 5 consecutive starts by Lester with 3 of those being quality starts.  Lester has been at his best from this mound.  IN 11 home starts, he is 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA.  He is a major reason why the Cubs are an MLB best 43-19 at home. Today’s mound opponent, Nelson, has dropped his last 5 starts with an ERA of 7.43.  He comes off a start against the Reds, in which he lasted just 5 IP, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits.  

With advantages throughout the handicap, including current form, hitting, starting and relief pitching, we turn to our run line records, which find that 59 of 75 Cubs’ victories have come by 2 or more runs.  Good enough for us to lay the runs in this contest!  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Chicago Cubs tonight.


Free MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 -135
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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