Today's MLB odds are undervaluing a team that has by far the better hitting, is playing with greater positive momentum and fields a starter who has taken advantage of the timely hitting of his teammates.
Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) vs. Boston Red Sox (Kelly) 7:10 ET
The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox for the first game of a 3-game weekend set. It is a matchup of AL East division rivals who are headed opposite directions. BetOnline opened the Blue Jays at +109. I'm always looking forward to playing an MLB underdog by backing the superior team in the role of underdog vs. an underperforming favorite, who is currently in poor form. In a matchup of underperforming starters, I am eager to place my MLB picks backing the big bats of the Blue Jays in the role of underdog.
The Boston Red Sox have been a peripatetic team in recent seasons. Going into this season, they have alternated winning and losing seasons. Much was expected of them this season when they added a historically strong batting punch to the lineup and started with a pitching rotation which showed much promise. The results have been horrific. A 12-10 start could be excusable, but tonight they enter on a 15-24 slide after losing a 3-game set at Baltimore by a combined score of 12-7. The hitters aren't hitting and the pitchers aren't pitching. That is extremely true of Kelly from whom much was expected on his successful tenure with St. Louis. For the YTD, however, Kelly is an underachieving 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA. Both Kelly and Boston remain on my PLAY AGAINST list.
The big Toronto bats, who feature a .777 OPS, the best in baseball, have begun to produce. Following a 3-11 slide, Toronto is on a 12-4 winning streak, including 8 consecutive victories. They are too good to pass up in the role of underdog vs. underachieving Boston. Today's starter, Hutchison, has been a huge benefactor of the Toronto bats. Though Hutchison has just a 4.91 ERA, he has a record of 5-1.
Entering Friday night play, parity is again filtering through the ranks of MLB teams. Nearly 90% of them are playing between .400 and .600 baseball. The point is ... that a team's basically .500 record is made up of short term winning and losing streaks. Seldom do these runs last more than 20 games. In the meantime, however, there is money to be made. Such is the case of today's matchup which Toronto has won 12 of 16 and 8 straight games. With Boston reeling at 15-24 and 0-3 of late, we must take advantage of the divergent momentum at this MLB odds underdog price for a solid winning selection.
MLB Picks: Blue Jays