With the Kansas City Royals firmly heading for the playoffs and the Chicago White Sox out of it I'm going to back under the total in this game. I think we have a classic underrated pitching matchup in this spot.
Oddsmakers came out on the total for this game at eight which is a nice middle number for the American League. Still, this is not a marquee pitching matchup so it gives me a little bit of pause as to why the number isn't a bit higher. Across the MLB odds board you get over or under that total at regular odds, but right now the best odds are at Pinnacle, where you can take under the total of eight at -105.
Chicago White Sox
Jose Quintana gets the start for the White Sox with a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 148 strikeouts, and a 7-10 record. He has been a solid number two option behind Chris Sale and has pitched pretty well in his last 10 starts. The most runs he has allowed in those starts is just four in which he did three times. He pitched in Kansas City in early August allowing that same four runs off of eight hits in six innings. Also, he has a solid road ERA of 3.55. The most interesting thing about the games he has pitched recently though is that in the last seven games the final for all of those games have put up nine runs or more, so the oddsmakers coming out with a total of eight on this game seems interesting.
The Chicago White Sox rank 27th in the major leagues in runs scored per game 3.83, 28th and OPS at .684, and 20th in batting average hitting .251 as a team. Their major offensive statistics go up slightly on the road but they are far from a dangerous hitting team. They have had a decent upswing their last five games but I don't look for them to continue that today.
Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy takes the mound for the Royals with a 4.11 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 72 strikeouts, and a 7-6 record. He has been really sharp in his last 10 starts with only one bad outing where he gave up five earned runs in six innings and that was against Toronto. In his last five starts he has only given up 12 total earned runs and he has kept the hit totals down to a minimum. Again, back to those last 10 starts, the most hits he has allowed in any of those games was seven in which he did twice. I anticipate him to pitch really well today against a weak hitting team like the White Sox.
The Royals rank fifth in the league in runs scored per game at 4.52, sixth in OPS at .738, and first in batting average hitting .273 as a team. At home they are a completely different monster with all of their offensive statistics going up in Kansas City. Still, against left-handers their statistics are a little more pedestrian as they rank in the middle of the American League in most key categories against southpaws.
This comes back to the number and an underrated pitching matchup in my opinion. It looks to me like the odds makers understand both of these guys are better than their statistics indicate so look for two quality starts from Quintana and Duffy. For your MLB picks I suggest backing the under with these two solid lefties in this contest. Don't expect a lot of runs in Kansas City.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at 5Dimes