White Sox a Live Dog at Home Vs. Returning David Price

Monday, May 29, 2017 12:06 PM UTC

Monday, May. 29, 2017 12:06 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper doesn't trust this Boston starter coming back from injury and thinks there are even more data points that suggest the home team underdog is the right play as the White Sox host the Red Sox this Memorial Day.

2017 MLB Record: 83-72-4 (+2.21 Units, 1.21% ROI)

Boston Red Sox At Chicago White Sox 

The White Sox and Red Sox meet on Memorial Day in Chicago for a matinee at Guaranteed Rate Field to decide which color socks are the best. The Red Sox have saved one of their best starters for this matchup, kind of, as David Price comes off the DL to make his first start of the season in this game. Even with no results in 2017, that has made Price and the Red Sox heavy -186 moneyline favorites at books such as BetDSI. The Over/Under has opened at 9, with some books pusing the line to 9.5, such as Heritage.

David Holmberg gets the spot start opposite of Price for the White Sox. Holmberg has been fantastic in a limited situational role with the White Sox and definitely has earned this start. He’s put up a 0.87 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and .091 batting average allowed over 8 appearances as a reliever, and has put up a 3-0 record and 1.76 ERA in Triple-A with one start mixed in. Our issue with Holmberg on Monday will be the distance he can go, but with the White Sox bullpen carrying a 2.50 ERA on the season that is almost a plus in this particular situation. Boston opened as a heavy favorite at -190 and the fact that line has been bet down to -178 at some books tells you how the market likes Holmberg’s chances.

Price starts for the Red Sox after a few rehab performances in Double-A. Over 5.2 innings, Price put up a 3.83 FIP but a 9.53 ERA. That discrepancy is almost entirely based on the ridiculous .524 BABIP that Price has experienced in minor-league ball. What I don’t like about his performance though is that his velocity is down almost a tick and a half from last year. And even if he was “working on stuff,” his .400 batting average allowed to minor-league batters is not good. This is clearly a pitcher that is not 100%. My opinion is that Price is not trustworthy until he can prove that he has recovered at the major-league level.

The White Sox come into this game feeling good after winning 3 of 4 games against their AL Central foe, Detroit Tigers. They have hit left-handed starters very well on the year, putting up 5.3 runs per game with a .290 batting average allowed over 520 at bats. That is about a season’s worth of at-bats, so that statistic has some legs to it. The White Sox have a losing record, but are 10-5 SU against left handed starters. I like the value being presented in this situation with the home team, so I will be backing the White Sox at +173 at 5Dimes as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: White Sox +173Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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