WHIP & OBP Stats Signal Safest Bet for Padres vs. Reds MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Friday, June 5, 2015 1:22 PM GMT

We’re going to examine tonight’s MLB game between San Diego and Cincinnati in our daily pursuit to uncover valuable MLB picks. Take a few moments to read this insightful piece that culminates with a selection on the total.

Padres and Reds in Series Opener at Cincinnati
Cincinnati will host San Diego on Friday in the opener of a three-game series, and the first pitch comes at 7:10 PM ET. According to the MLB odds at Bookmaker, Cincinnati is a -110 money line favorite, and the posted total is 7.5. These teams have gone 10-2 under the total during their twelve meetings since 2013, and San Diego won eight of the twelve.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Padres Tyson Ross will be making his twelfth start of the season tonight for the Padres. He’s gone 6-4-1 over the total in 2015, and has encountered some control issues along the way. Ross has walked 32 men in 64 2/3 innings of work thus far. He’s also compiled a lofty 1.60 WHIP in six starts on the road. On a more positive note, Ross is 3-0 in his career team starts versus Cincinnati, and posted a microscopic 0.78 ERA in those outings.

The Reds will counter with Raisel Iglesias for tonight’s series opener. Iglesias is 2-2 in his team starts this season with a sizable 4.57 ERA. He’s coming off a shaky outing in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings pitched versus Washington.

 

Recent Results point to high scoring Game
Despite these teams having a history of playing low scoring games in recent seasons, tonight seems to be an opportune time to buck that trend. San Diego has gone 7-0-1 over the total during their last eight games. They also scored 5 runs or more in six of those eight. The Padres have gone 34-20-1 over the total in 2015.

The Reds have gone over the total in all of their previous five games, and there was an average of 10.2 runs combined scored per contest. They’ve also scored 4 runs or more in each of the last seven games. Cincinnati has hit 35 home runs in their first 24 home games, and they’re on pace to smack 118 homers at Great American Ball Park this season. The Reds are 13-8-3 over the total at home thus far.

Must Read: Find out how to use a player-based approach when handicapping MLB

MLB Totals Betting System
The Padres have a team on base percentage of .299 heading into today. The Cincinnati starter Iglesias has a WHIP of 1.29 during his starts in 2015. The combination of these two pieces of data, qualifies for a highly successful MLB totals betting angle which has aced the test of time.

Any road team (Padres) playing in the first half of the season, and has an on base percentage of .300 or less, versus a National League opponent with a starting pitcher (Iglesias) who has a WHIP of 1.25 to 1.30 resulted in that road team going 40-14 (74.1%) over the total since 1997. When making my MLB picks on Friday, I searched for the best value. Some sportsbooks have this number at 8.0, and a few are 7.5. I chose Bookmaker who has a posted total of 7.5, and a reasonable -115 juice for a wager on the over.

MLB Pick: San Diego and Cincinnati to go over the total of 7.5 at Bookmaker